At the beginning of 2025 I gave caution the slip and made five predictions for the year in politics. One was wrong: I anticipated Liberal Democrat Mike Ross would be elected Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, but he lost to Reform UK’s Luke Campbell by 11,000 votes.
The remaining four I claim as wins. I guessed a Reform MP would leave the party (James McMurdock quit in July); that Dame Andrea Jenkyns would be elected Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire (she won a majority of 39,500); that the opposition would force the resignation of a Cabinet minister (Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner walked in September); and that the government would lose a by-election it expected to win (Reform’s Sarah Pochin overturned a Labour majority of 15,000 in Runcorn and Helsby).
I cannot claim Minority Report-style precognition. But I have watched politics for a long time, and spent more than a decade working in parliament, an immersive experience. Moreover, people are people, even MPs, often conforming to archetypes. So here are five new hostages to fortune for 2026.
Morgan McSweeney will not last the year as Downing Street Chief of Staff
The Corkman has attracted criticism from the moment he succeeded Sue Gray in October 2024, but the Prime Minister relies on him. There comes a point, however, beyond which the position of an adviser is untenable because the adviser is the story, and if McSweeney has not reached this point, he is very close. A strategist rather than a fixer, he is making mistakes. Sooner or later, Sir Keir Starmer will see his departure as a safety valve – or else the PM will make an exit too.
The Scottish Parliament elections in May will produce an SNP majority government
It’s nearly 19 years since Alex Salmond became First Minister of Scotland, and the Scottish National Party has been in power under four successive leaders as a minority government, a majority and a coalition. In early summer last year, it looked like a party in decline, especially when Humza Yousaf resigned as First Minister after an accident-prone, lacklustre 14 months. Anas Sarwar had made Scottish Labour credible and even sneaked a small lead in a few opinion polls. Then Starmer became Prime Minister, and as his popularity collapsed so did his party’s north of the border. The SNP is still tired and devoid of ideas, with a lousy record in office. But Labour’s gallows-like plummet, Reform UK‘s surge and the Conservatives’ perpetual search for a role have left John Swinney’s party with a double-digit lead. The First Minister must scarcely believe his luck.
A Reform UK-led local authority will suffer a major scandal
In May, Nigel Farage’s party leapt from a virtual standing start to win 804 councillors and control of 10 local authorities. It is still fourth or fifth in local government but a gain of 28 per cent remains an astonishing achievement. But its rapid expansion since Farage reclaimed the leadership of what is still in part his private fiefdom has meant hasty and inadequate vetting of candidates. There have been high-profile departures as well as some eye-catching recruits and the imprisonment of Nathan Gill, its former leader in Wales. The inexperience of many of their councillors is showing as they face the challenge of administration. Embarrassing mistakes and failures have already taken place, but a major case of incompetence or wrongdoing is eminently possible in 2026.
America will walk away from the war in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin is clearly in no mood to make peace, and Donald Trump Mini-Me Steve Witkoff keeps delivering terms so bad for Ukraine that they are impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept. The only lure for Trump now is the possibility of halting combat so the “President of Peace” can add the conflict to his fictitious list of wars he has ended. Direct military aid to Ukraine has already virtually ended, with new equipment being paid for by other NATO members; Congress has approved $400 million in aid for each of the next two years, but it is loose change compared to the $130 billion America has already spent. With a major military build-up in the Caribbean, Trump won’t hesitate to stop intelligence sharing, cease air-to-air refueling and strike capabilities and withdraw anti-missile defences from Ukraine. And Europe cannot realistically replace them.
Keir Starmer will see in New Year 2027 in Downing Street
I’m out on a limb here, I realise, and might be proved wrong. Most people think the milk in their fridge will last longer than Starmer’s premiership. His performance is woeful and there is no sign of improvement. But… unseating a Labour leader is hard: unlike in the Conservative Party, you have to nominate an alternative candidate and get 20 per cent of Labour MPs – currently 81 – to back him or her just to trigger a contest, with the incumbent automatically on the ballot. No Labour PM has ever been removed from office, and I don’t see enough Labour MPs agreeing on a single challenger with a noticeably different policy platform. Starmer will stay but nobody will be happy about it.
It will be another crazy year, at any rate. But we’re used to those now, aren’t we?
Eliot Wilson is a political commentator