Goldman Sachs, Oaktree and Carlyle will take part in the Bank of England’s inaugural stress test of the burgeoning private credit sector this week, City AM can reveal.
Britain’s central bank is poised to carry out its first ever “system-wide exploratory scenario exercise” of so-called shadow banks in the coming weeks, in a bid to to probe how the increasingly pivotal corner of UK finance would fare during a downturn in market conditions.
The UK’s largest UK-founded non-bank, ICG, is also understood to be taking part. Sources familiar with the exercise’s planning confirmed that the four companies – which are among the biggest names in the private credit industry – will take part in the test, during which officials will seek to understand “the actions [they take] in response to a shock”.
Banking behemoth Goldman Sachs, which as well as boasting its own private credit division also issues traditional loans to specialist non-banking funds, will be submitted to tests both on the response of its private debt practice and the underwriting of its loans to the industry.
Oaktree, the Los Angeles-based private markets giant established by investment luminary Howard Marks, Carlyle and ICG will also submit to interrogation from the Bank over the systemic risk their loans pose to the UK economy.
Private credit comes under regulators’ gaze
Watchdogs across the world have become increasingly worried about the opaque role that private markets play in the global financial system, after a string of high-profile corporate collapses with ties to private lending.
The International Monetary Fund devoted a chapter of its 2024 financial stability report to the systemic threat posed by the private credit industry, which now boasts an estimated $2 trillion under management. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has also compared some of the riskier lending issued by industry players to the sub-prime mortgage crash that foreshadowed the 2008 financial crisis, saying “alarm bells” were ringing.
The recent failures of car part maker First Brands, and subprime auto lenders Primalend and Tricolor, were held up as evidence of lax underwriting at private credit funds which could trigger a future financial crisis. The industry has vigorously denied those charges, claiming its long-term, closed-end nature makes it less vulnerable to contagion than traditional banking.
As well as Oaktree, ICG and Goldman, earlier reports have revealed industry heavyweights Blackstone, Apollo and KKR will also participate in the test. A source familiar with the inaugural test said the Bank of England was planning to unveil a full list of names taking part and reveal additional detail on how it will work on Thursday.
The exercise is similar to the regulator’s biannual probe of the traditional lending sector, the results of which it published this week alongside confirmation it would lower capital requirements on licensed banks in a bid to boost lending. Private markets are not as heavily regulated as banks, meaning the industry juggernauts that are confirmed to be taking part have signed up voluntarily.
Oaktree, ICG, Carlyle and Goldman Sachs declined to comment.