Napoleon is supposed to have declared that he’d “rather have lucky generals than good ones.” Here in the UK, it seems we have a Chancellor who fits just such a mould.
Only the most loyal Labour MPs would declare that Rachel Reeves is a good Chancellor, and in doing so they’d be setting themselves firmly against the grain of public opinion.
Our latest survey of British voters makes things quite clear; just 15 per cent have a favourable attitude towards Reeves while 60 per cent say their view is unfavourable. Only Starmer fares worse. Perhaps Reeves can take comfort from the 5 per cent who say they’ve never heard of her, or at least the 20 per cent who say they are yet to make up their mind.
Just under 60 per cent of voters say Reeves should resign, and not because they don’t like the cut her jib but because they think her Budget broke Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise taxes on working people. With taxes on working people going up – via fiscal drag – voters feel they’ve been lied to and they feel, rightly, that there should be consequences for that.
The Chancellor says she’s simply “asked” people to “pay a bit more” but it’s not as if anyone can decline. The anger is real and justifiable, but for now at least the Chancellor’s luck appears to be holding.
Why is the Chancellor so confident?
Despite facing allegations that she lied to (or at least misled) the public over the state of the economy and the information that informed her tax-raising ambitions, she continues to strike a bullish tone. She insisted yesterday she is “absolutely confident” that she’ll still be Chancellor by the time of the next election.
What accounts for this confidence? It can’t be her track record.
She failed to shave a few billion off the welfare bill earlier this year, proving that Labour MPs had more control over economic policy than she did. She went on to preside over the most chaotic and damaging Budget build-up anyone can remember and then, in delivering that Budget she disavowed previous pledges and promises not to hike taxes, and did so with impunity. Unemployment is up, growth barely registers and living standards are set to flatline.
The fact is that her fate is bound to that of the Prime Minister, and most of the Budget’s policies were designed to shore him up. As long as he has a job, she has a job.