An unusually late and extraordinarily widely briefed Budget has attracted more nerves and anticipation than any in recent memory.
So when Rachel Reeves takes to the dispatch box just after midday on Wednesday, she is set to do so with the knowledge that her fate – and the Prime Minister’s – rest on placating at least some of the conflicting interests on the left and right.
According to Reeves’ predecessor Jeremy Hunt, the contents of the Budget would have been locked down last Friday at the latest.
The former Tory Chancellor said that he would typically use the weekend before the Budget to work on his speech.
While Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projections often result in relatively last minute fiscal changes, the process has never before played out so publicly.
Most strikingly, following more than a week of trails that Reeves might tear apart a Labour manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, the Treasury appeared to sensationally U-turn and the hike has now been ruled out.
Budget day itself
It’s a busy morning for Rachel Reeves, who will kick off the morning alongside senior members of the HM Treasury team and the permanent secretary, finalising the details of her speech.
Between 9 and 10am, the Chancellor is set for a meeting with Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, as well as the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The final OBR forecasts will be submitted to the Treasury, and published alongside the Budget speech.
Around 10am, the Cabinet gets advance sight of the Budget – though, if there is any opposition at this stage there won’t be enough time to do very much about it.
Photographers will be gathered outside Number 11 Downing Street for a photo opportunity with the Chancellor, her team of Treasury Ministers and the all-important Red Box.
Though this is very much the Chancellor’s day, the spotlight will also be on Sir Keir Starmer. The Prime Minister will face Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at the regularly scheduled Prime Minister’s Questions from midday.
Then, at 12:30pm, it’s the moment we’ve all been waiting for.
When Reeves sits down, the Conservatives will have the opportunity to make a response. Last year, the Tories were represented by outgoing leader – and recently defeated ex-PM – Rishi Sunak in a swansong appearance before Kemi Badenoch took over.
So, it will be either the Conservative leader or her shadow Chancellor Mel Stride making a counter statement to the Commons.
The Chancellor is set to do a handful of initial interviews following the Budget,
Not-so-boozy Budget
Back in the day, the Chancellor would present the Budget with a drink in hand. This happened most recently in 1996, when Ken Clarke revealed the his party’s fiscal package before Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide with a whisky.
While Gordon Brown and his successors have since done away with this tradition, Budgets of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries were lubricated with a colourful range of alcoholic tipples.
Thatcher’s first Chancellor Geoffrey Howe opted for a gin and tonic, while his successor Nigel Lawson went for a spritzer.
Under the reign of Queen Victoria, Benjamin Disraeli preferred a brandy and water and William Gladstone went for a sherry and beaten egg.
Rachel Reeves is expected to deliver her second Budget with a glass of water, especially with rumours swirling that the government could spring a second alcohol tax hike on the day.
Whatever happens on the day, City AM will have comprehensive live coverage of the twists and turns. Our reporters will be blogging live throughout the day, with a Budget reaction programme live from the London Stock Exchange from 2pm.