After London’s capital markets suffered one of their quietest starts to the year in decades, brokers all had the same words on their lips: second-half. Everything will pick up in the second half, they said. You just wait and see.
If the start of the second half is anything to go by, those brokers may be waiting longer than they’d hoped for. The latest monthly capital markets report by Investec shows total equity raised in the UK stood at just £810m in July – down more than 40 per cent compared to the same month last year.
Notably – and perhaps embarrassingly – the seventh-biggest deal by value was by a firm which turned over just £176,000 between January and April. That firm was Smarter Web Company, which only raised the money so that it could buy Bitcoin.
At £9bn, total equity raised so far in 2025 is less than half what it was last year. The number of transactions is down by a third at 63 – though this number flatters the statistics, as it’s lower once you strip out other small-caps aping Smarter Web’s Bitcoin buying bonanza.
Brokers have already started – subtly – to change their tune. It’s a little less “second half”, more “maybe next year.” Last month’s Investec report said UK IPO volumes are expected to be “second half weighted” – this month it was edited to “second half weighted and 2026”.
What accounts for the poor showing? “Six words – backed by long term supportive shareholders – is quite powerful…[but] there’s been a lack of that for the last three years when companies have been feeling a bit more vulnerable rather than opportunistic,” said Peel Hunt’s Steven Fine in the company’s latest podcast, adding that renewed shareholder confidence in listed firms’ growth strategies would be key to a market revival.
But “perhaps there’s been a bit of a shift,” Fine said, citing recent deals by FTSE 250 members Coats and Hammerson, with the former raising funds to buy US firm OrthoLite for £570m.
A few more moves like that and London will be so back. But when? My money’s on the second half of the second half.