The 1990s were a turbulent time for Britain’s economy and Oasis’ anthems are a reminder of that time – and a warning about an uncertain future, says Tim Focas
Oasis are back. Thirty years after their Britpop heyday, the Gallagher brothers are selling out stadiums once again. But their return isn’t just about nostalgia. Their catalogue of anthems also offers an eerie parallel to Britain’s fiscal past, and frankly, its uncertain future.
The mid‑1990s were turbulent. Britain had crashed out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) on “Black Wednesday” in 1992, a humiliation that left sterling adrift and the government’s credibility shot. Borrowing surged to nearly eight per cent of GDP. Gilts wobbled. Investors fretted. The treasury was, in Oasis terms, stuck halfway up a Wonderwall of worry.
Yet the hangover didn’t last forever. Norman Lamont, and later Ken Clarke, began the grinding work of fiscal repair with a prudent programme of tax rises, spending restraint and a renewed focus on inflation. When Gordon Brown arrived in 1997, he doubled down. He gave the Bank of England independence, kept Tory spending plans for two years and introduced fiscal “rules” to signal prudence. The fiscal approach was clear. Credibility mattered more than quick wins. And the great British public decided to just roll with it.
Fast forward to 2025, and the parallels are striking. Public debt is high, debt‑interest costs are rising and fiscal headroom is wafer‑thin. The Truss mini‑Budget showed how quickly markets can punish excess. Investors aren’t demanding miracles. They want frameworks, consistency and discipline. In the 1990s, Britain won back credibility little by little with steady policy, not grand gestures. Inflation was tamed, growth recovered and gilt investors rediscovered their nerve. That credibility lasted until the financial crisis a decade later.
A trickier backdrop
Today, the government faces a much trickier backdrop. Weak productivity, ageing demographics and growing pressure for higher public spending. But the fundamentals haven’t changed. Just as Oasis warned some things should fade away, fiscal gimmickry and unfunded pledges fall firmly into that category.
The Gallagher brothers’ “investment pearls” almost write the playbook. Volatility? Roll With It. Market nerves? Scale the Wonderwall with discipline, not denial. Inflation? Make sure it casts no shadow. The fiscal prudence of the mid‑90s wasn’t always popular, but it set the stage for a period of stability and growth. Investors who stayed the course were rewarded.
Volatility? Roll With It. Market nerves? Scale the Wonderwall with discipline, not denial. Inflation? Make sure it casts no shadow
The danger now is that Britain repeats the band’s own trajectory. Oasis soared, then imploded under the weight of excess. Fiscal policy can do the same. A messy backstage bust‑up in Whitehall may be entertaining for the tabloids, but gilt markets won’t be so forgiving come the autumn budget. The lesson from the 1990s is that fiscal credibility isn’t glamorous. It doesn’t fill stadiums or grab headlines. But it is the chart‑topper that never goes out of style. Governments that anchor borrowing and stick to their frameworks win investors’ trust. Those that don’t end up paying a heavy price.
So as Oasis belt out the old hits on their comeback tour, Britain’s policymakers might reflect on the wisdom hidden between the lyrics. Fiscal policy doesn’t need to be Supersonic. It just needs to be credible, disciplined, and yes, a little more conservative. Because the one thing worse than looking back in anger, is being forced to look forward in fear.
Tim Focas is head of capital markets at Aspectus Group