Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has criticised the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) for making “overly exaggerated” claims about Brexit’s impact on the economy.
The OBR released a series of gloomy predictions in recent years claiming that Brexit had stifled growth and wrecked trade.
But Hunt has claimed that leaving the European Union has in fact had “much less impact on British exports” than previously estimated.
His comments come in the foreword to a new report by the right-leaning think tank Policy Exchange, which unpicks flaws in the independent forecaster’s methods and criticises much of the post-Brexit debate.
It claims that the OBR published “misleading” data regarding a fall in UK vehicle exports since 2023.
The OBR said exports dropped by 28 per cent – by volume – but Policy Exchange said the data had not considered the value of these exports, adding that the drop is in fact 2 per cent in real terms.
The report argues that the OBR has taken a narrow view on its trade analysis, failing to consider the UK’s troubles in EU markets before Brexit.
It also said that the OBR had relied on data that did not account for volatile prices.
Phil Radford, the paper’s author, said that the defects could lead to Chancellor Rachel Reeves making misjudged policy announcements.
“OBR assumptions feed into long-term economic forecasts, and these forecasts affect ministerial decision-making on taxation and spending. What’s more, a proper understanding of changes in aggregate trade data is vital to practical policymaking.”
He also echoed Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he said the UK could retain “positive and open” relationships with both the United States and the European Union.
Starmer has embarked on a rapprochement with the European Union, becoming the first post-Brexit prime minister to join one of its EU Leaders’ meetings last month.
In his foreword to the new report, Hunt urged the Labour government not to “relitigate Brexit”.
“The half-decade of political instability that followed Brexit took its toll on governance and neither business, nor the population at large, would thank the government for reopening these questions,” he said.
The OBR were contacted for comment.