There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen. This quote — often attributed to history’s other murderous Vladimir, Soviet leader Lenin — could not describe the last week more aptly. The heart-sinking scene of Donald Trump and JD Vance locked in a tense, antagonistic exchange with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office was a turning point. It crystallised the United States’ shift against Ukraine. But more than that, it sent an unmistakable signal to Europe: the era of relying on Washington for security is ending.
Back in Blighty, Prime Minister Keir Starmer might be rising to the occasion in international affairs after struggling on the domestic front. The pace of activity has been frantic, from a cordial visit to the White House to hosting European leaders and Zelenskyy for a summit over the weekend, along with announcing a boost in defence spending. Today’s City AM / Freshwater Strategy Poll indicates that the public are looking favourably on the government’s approach.
Labour is now rated above the Conservatives for who is best to handle defence and national security, with an extraordinary 13 points shift towards the government since just last month. The government have firmly parked their tanks on what is usually considered a Conservative stronghold, an ominous sign for the opposition. While still far from the top issue, defence and national security are up six points among voters’ priorities since last month.
Last week’s announcement on cutting aid spending to boost defence has also received a big thumbs-up from voters. Almost two-thirds of the public (64%) back the idea, while just a quarter (24%) oppose it. Notably, when given other options to fund a boost in defence spending, cutting foreign aid remains by far the most popular (52%) compared to keeping defence spending the same (19%), cutting taxes (10%) or reducing public services (5%). Cutting aid to fund defence is even the most popular option among Labour voters.
The other good news for the government in this poll are signs of early green shoots on the economy. There has been a slight shift in those who think the economy is improving since the start of the year, up 3 points to 22%, and fewer saying they think things will worsen, down 4 points to 52%. There’s also greater belief in people’s personal financial position and more are feeling financially comfortable. The overall picture is still quite negative, but may just be pointing in the right direction.
The bad news for the Prime Minister is that, at least so far, none of this has translated into higher personal approval ratings or voter support. Starmer’s net approval rating remains extremely low, at -34. In voting intentions, Reform UK (27%) has overtaken Labour (24%) and the Conservative Party (23%). If there was a uniform swing, which is considered unlikely, the insurgent party would be the biggest in the House of Commons with 216 constituencies, most likely putting Nigel Farage into Number 10 with the support of the Tories, who would win 144 seats.
Foreign policy success may grab headlines, but it can only ever be the cherry on top. Voters care far more about tangible progress on the cost of living, immigration, and health and social care than they do about smiling photos with global leaders. If the government can’t deliver on these everyday concerns, no amount of diplomatic triumph will secure its fate.
Matthew Lesh is Country Manager at Freshwater Strategy