As European football’s club competitions head into their knockout phases, the Premier League’s prospects of getting a fifth place in the Champions League are becoming clearer.
Since 2019, Uefa has awarded an extra spot in the Champions League to the two nations whose clubs performed the best in its three competitions during the previous season.
That means that results this year determine whether finishing fifth in the Premier League will be enough to gain access to the continent’s most prestigious – and lucrative – tournament.
Depending on what happens it could be huge news for Chelsea, Newcastle United, Aston Villa and perhaps even Bournemouth, Fulham or Brighton and Hove Albion.
How does Uefa decide who gets a fifth Champions League place?
The extra spots are handed to the nations with the highest coefficients – a score derived from the results in European competition of all clubs from that league.
In a nutshell, teams earn coefficient points for each win or draw in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, plus bonus points for progressing through the rounds.
That total is then divided by the number of teams who qualified for Europe to get the nation’s coefficient.
So in very simple terms, the more English clubs who go far in each Uefa competition this season, the better the Premier League’s chances of getting that fifth Champions League place.
Will England get a fifth Champions League place this season?
Naturally, the top leagues tend to be the ones who get extra spots and the Premier League has managed it four of the last six seasons.
Last year England was edged out by Italy and Germany but this time around they and Spain are currently on course to get fifth Champions League places.
That position wasn’t helped this week by Manchester City’s elimination by Real Madrid, but Italy – third in the coefficient rankings – did even worse, with AC Milan and Juventus dumped out.
Six of the seven Premier League sides who qualified for Europe remain in contention, so there is plenty of opportunity to boost England’s position further.
Current Uefa country coefficient rankings 2024-25
1. England, 20.892 (6/7 teams remaining)
2. Spain, 19.035 (6/7)
3. Italy, 18.187 (4/8)
4. Portugal, 16.050 (2/5)
5. Germany, 16.046 (4/8)
What does a fifth Champions League place mean for the Premier League?
Getting an extra seat at the top table has knock-on effects, most notably that England will have eight rather than seven teams in European competition next season.
That would mean this year’s Premier League top five going into the Champions League, sixth place and the winners of the FA Cup making the Europa League and the Carabao Cup winners or – if they finish in the top six – seventh place entering the Conference League.
There could even be a sixth or even seventh English club in the Champions League if one of the non-qualifiers bags a place by winning the competition – such as Aston Villa – or the Europa League, in the case of Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur.
In that scenario, finishing eighth or ninth in the Premier League could be good enough to qualify for the Conference League.
Who is on course to earn England’s fifth Champions League place?
Liverpool and Arsenal look nailed on to finish in the top four, while Nottingham Forest are currently third and Manchester City fourth.
Bournemouth’s stunning season means that the plucky south-coast side sit in pole position for fifth place, ahead of Chelsea on goal difference.
Newcastle are only two points behind and both Fulham and Villa are two further back, while Brighton are also within six points of Bournemouth and can’t be counted out.
Tottenham and Manchester United are 13 and 14 points adrift of fifth respectively, so their only realistic route back to the Champions League is winning the Europa League.