Firms that choose to re-open operations in Russia after a peace agreement has been reached would be “making a bad bet” and “deserve to lose their money”, a former hedge fund manager dubbed ‘Putin’s number one enemy’ has said.
Speaking to City AM from the Munich Security Conference (MSC), Sir Bill Browder launched a scathing preemptive assessment of any companies tempted by a return to the pariah state, warning it would be irrational on economic as well as moral grounds.
“Assuming a negotiation has been had that leads to some agreement, which is a big assumption, the first thing I would say is that Putin always lies and never honours his agreements,” the arch Kremlin critic said.
“Anybody who would be making investments and doing business on the back of some type of peace that Putin promises would be making a very bad bet to start out with.”
Almost all western companies cut ties with Russia after Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2021, with only a notable few deciding to maintain or annexe operations.
Analysts have predicted some brands will eye-up a return should a peace agreement be met. But Browder – whose Hermitage Fund was at one stage was the largest foreign investor in Russia before he was deported in 2005 – said that those who do would not only find a Russian economy on its knees, but that further military action was all but guaranteed.
“I think that they [Russia] are on the verge of an economic collapse,” he said. “You can’t have 23 per cent interest rates and a totally disembowelled labour force where a million young men have either been killed or maimed and another million have left the country.”
“Putin needs to be in war in order to stay in power,” he added. “If there’s any type of ceasefire it will be a short-term ceasefire, and Putin will need to get back to fighting his enemies.”
Browder has become one of the world’s most high-profile critics of the Russia under Vladimir Putin, and helped push through the seminal Magnitsky Act in the US.
The landmark law – passed in 2012 – punishes Russian violators of human rights and unexplained sources of wealth, and is named after a Russian tax advisor who died in prison after Browder commissioned him to investigate the reason for Russian authorities raiding his company’s office.
Putin ‘popping champagne’
Browder told City AM that Putin would be “dancing a jig” at recent developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, which have seen the Trump administration sideline Ukraine and Europe in an attempt to push through a peace deal.
In an incendiary speech at the MSC branded as “a shock to hear” by Browder, vice president JD Vance told dignitaries that the he was more afraid of the “enemy within” Europe than external actors like Russia or Iran.
And away from the summit, the US has scheduled initial talks with Russian officials and ministers in Saudi Arabia in the coming days. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Kyiv had not been invited and there will be no European representatives despite British and continental armed forces expected to be the main ‘peace keeping’ presence after any deal.
Browder said of the fast-moving situation: “I think that Putin is dancing the jig and popping champagne in the Kremlin right now. I don’t think he can believe his luck that the international affairs have turned so spectacularly in his direction.”
He added: “[Trump] seems to want to end the war by having a negotiation with only one party in the war: which is Putin.
“And by making that initial foray, it creates a situation where there will be no end o the war, because you can’t have a peach treaty with only one warring party.”