I couldn’t concur more with former Wales fly-half Dan Biggar when he said their Six Nations clash with Italy this weekend is the team’s biggest game in the last 20 years.
On paper this match should be a walk in the park for Wales; the last time they lost to Italy on the continent was in 2007.
But it is more complicated than that, because Italy have won two of their last three meetings and showed better fight against Scotland in round one last weekend than Wales managed in their 43-0 drubbing by France in Paris.
Another loss on Saturday for Warren Gatland’s side would slash the odds on a second successive Wooden Spoon – and probably the longevity of the Kiwi’s future in Cardiff.
But the reality is that Wales just aren’t that good, and it would take some shift from the likes of the unemployed Stuart Lancaster and Toby Booth or Glasgow’s Franco Smith to turn the 2019 Grand Slam victors into winners again should Gatland be replaced.
Wales beyond embarrassment
Their run of 13 consecutive losses – excluding non-capped matches against the Queensland Reds and Barbarians – have come against Australia on three occasions, France and South Africa twice each and Fiji, Italy, and the other five Six Nations teams once. It really is a dire record from across the rugby spectrum.
A loss at the Stadio Olimpico this weekend would arguably not be embarrassing for Wales; they’re beyond embarrassment now. A nation with a history of sensational Five and Six Nations teams reduced to desperation focused on where the next win will come from.
That, if anything, is the biggest justification for a relegation play-off; the likes of Georgia may not do any better but they certainly couldn’t do any worse.
But I am not here today advocating for Wales to be booted into a competition where they’d play the likes of Switzerland and the Netherlands – not because they’re too good to be there but because it would further cripple the Welsh coffers, which have taken an absolute battering over the last couple of years.
Instead I want some proper fight from Wales against Italy – in victory or in defeat. Against France only a few players showed up. At least in England and Italy’s losses in the opening round there was some scintillating rugby that cut open more developed defences.
Shining light
Captain Jac Morgan was one of the few shining lights for Gatland’s men and the side will rely on him again to lead from the front in Rome.
A loss on Saturday would send Wales into the first Six Nations break, where they’ll lose their overseas players, 0 from 2.
Then they have Ireland at home, and suddenly it could all get a little bit messy… and a little bit grim. Follow that with Scotland and then England and – even with the latter’s losing start – Wales could end the competition without a Six Nations win in two years and on a run of 17 consecutive losses.
Wales are in the land of the gladiators this weekend, in one of rugby’s great Colosseums, but Italy will want to put Gatland and his side to the sword. Am I confident Wales can turn it around? With all my heart, no, as the iconic film goes.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie @OlliePhillips11