ANTE-POST betting is all about finding value with a horse that will go off a much shorter price come race day, but this weekend looks tough with plenty of small fields and short-priced favourites.
The presence of current Arkle favourite Sir Gino adds some real pizzazz to William Hill Super Saturday at Newbury but he also makes the Game Spirit (3.00pm) unappealing from a betting point of view.
Sir Gino was so impressive in his nonchalant defeat of Ballyburn at Kempton over Christmas, form that the runner-up franked at Leopardstown last weekend, that I expect him to take this step into open company in his stride.
As we approach the Cheltenham Festival many of the runners in the open looking three-mile handicap hurdle (1.50pm) are likely to be prepping for a run in March and that makes predicting what will run to their best tricky.
The William Hill Denman Chase (2.25pm) is an open contest and while Hitman could be interesting, he doesn’t make much ante-post appeal at around 5/1 as I can see him going off a bigger price on the day.
If Paul Nicholls’ runner was to drift though, I wouldn’t put anyone off a bet.
William Hill are the new sponsors of the day’s feature (3.35pm), historically one of the strongest two-mile handicap hurdles in the calendar and a race that offers the best betting propositions this weekend.
I’m going to fire two darts in the contest, with the first being NAVAJO INDY who has an excellent record at Newbury.
Tom Symonds’ six-year-old was a good winner of the Gerry Feilden over this course and distance back in November, having already had a win and a second to his name in his two previous starts at the Berkshire venue.
He wasn’t suited to the track at Windsor last time, as he could never really get rolling on a course where runners are always on the turn, but still ran a respectable race to finish fourth to winner Secret Squirrel.
That rival is respected and looks a worthy favourite here, but Navajo Indy is now five pounds better off at the weights and back at a course he clearly loves, so may be up to reversing the form.
Ground conditions at Newbury are expected to be soft and could be tough work with the ground drying out, but that won’t bother the selection who has shown he copes well with deep, testing ground.
At around 9/1 with the race sponsors, he is my idea of a strong each-way bet.
To win a race as competitive as this, you need a horse that is a good bit ahead of its handicap mark, and one I think could be well-treated off a mark of 137 is TELLHERTHENAME.
He was a good novice last season, winning twice in impressive style at Huntingdon, and was thought of as a dark horse in some circles for the Supreme at Cheltenham.
He didn’t show his best in that high-quality field but can be forgiven that effort, and showed his ability with a good return this season when fourth behind Sir Gino in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle.
That was his first start since switching to the Jonjo and AJ O’Neill yard and it was a promising run as he stayed on well to the line after looking to get outpaced.
Connections have been keen to protect his handicap mark, and this race looks to have been the plan.
This contest is often run at an end-to-end gallop, and the greater test of stamina will suit this six-year-old, so there’s plenty to like at around 10/1 in places.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Navajo Indy e/w 3.35pm Newbury
Tellherthename e/w 3.35pm Newbury