Labour’s majority is enormous, but it only gives us the appearance of stability. All the evidence suggests their support is broad but shallow and their victory was as much a question of good luck and good timing as it was a literal vote of support for Labour’s policies.
The Tory party is basically neck and neck with Labour in the polls, and while the next general election is a long way off there are signs that it could prove to be a highly uncertain and disruptive event when it comes.
One of the reasons for this is the emergence of Reform UK. They claim to have 100,000 members are are evidently peeling away Conservative supporters in the form of ex-minister Andrea Jenkyns and their latest star signing, Tory grandee Tim Montgomerie. And while the party is led by the MP for Clacton its most influential backer could turn out to be none other than the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.
Evidence shows it’s unwise to underestimate Nigel Farage
Britain’s first past the post electoral system is notoriously inimical to third parties, but evidence shows it’s unwise to underestimate Nigel Farage. We should, therefore, consider their emerging policy platform, if only to be polite. On the surface, there’s some sensible ideas kicking around their policy documents; abolishing the tourist tax, cutting stamp duty and raising the VAT threshold are ideas the Tories may yet come to borrow. On the downside, the party makes fairly wild claims about the benefits of abandoning the Net Zero agenda and ‘doing Brexit properly.’
As things stand, those claiming that Reform could actually win the next election currently represent the outermost fringes of public opinion. But could that change?
This question brings us back to Elon Musk. The billionaire is rumoured to be keen on funding Reform, to the tune of $100m, and if he finds a legal way of doing this he could put a rocket under the party and shape the political weather right up to polling day.
A look at the state of Western democracies, and recent political upsets and victories elsewhere, should provide a pause for thought among those who consider this scenario too far-fetched. The truth is that the prospect of an unpopular Labour incumbent, a divided Tory opposition and a cash-rich Nigel Farage fighting it out in 2029 deserves to be taken seriously.