When the International Olympic Committee awarded the 2024 Summer Olympic Games to Paris in 2017 there was a huge sense of anticipation and pride across France. Fast forward to today and the mood appears to be very different.
In the lead up to major sporting events there is always a degree of trepidation around operational delivery, disruption levels for host city residents, escalating costs and whether the host nation will achieve the hoped-for sporting success.
Ahead of the opening ceremony in Paris next week, however, there are more fundamental questions being asked across France over whether the disruption, geopolitical realities and associated risks that exist in 2024 have eclipsed the traditional benefits of hosting major sporting events.
Traditionally, countries and cities bidding to host major events hope to secure a range of benefits. These include advancing soft power opportunities, unlocking short- and long-term economic advantages, securing future tourism growth, and capitalising on opportunities to showcase innovation and heritage.
No doubt, Paris was looking forward to leveraging these benefits via a festival of sporting action across some of the finest sporting venues in one of the most iconic cities in the world.
Unfortunately, these aspirations have been significantly challenged by the need to focus on a growing number of threats fuelled by fears of geopolitically related attacks around the Games.
France win bid
Threats and risks
Sadly, the range of threats to the 2024 Paris Olympics are many and varied. They include potential terrorist atrocities, cyber disruption activity such as ransomware attacks, state-sponsored espionage, civil unrest, strikes, protests and demonstrations.
Such threats may emerge from domestic groups, particular countries, or international coalitions. An unanticipated election added to the complexity and further aggravated existing tensions across the country.
Given this daunting risk profile, it has been necessary to put in place comprehensive defence mechanisms to protect participants, attendees, and the Parisian and French populations. This has involved adjustments to the Games programme, unprecedented security and cross border arrangements, and the introduction of new laws in France to aid policing, some of which remain controversial.
In terms of the Olympic Games programme, security concerns have already contributed to an adjustment in the original opening ceremony arrangements. The proposed public event scheduled to take place along the Seine has been significantly scaled back.
The original plan to make it an open event for up to 600,000 people occupying free viewing locations has been scrapped amid security fears. The plan now is to create an invite-only event for 300,000, although if the current threat level escalates, a re-location or further scaling back cannot be ruled out.
This major change to a unique and Paris-specific opening ceremony arguably already represents a victory for the disruptors.
Broadly speaking the Parisian population have mixed feelings towards the Games: proud to host them and have the world looking at Paris, irritated to have their habits disrupted
Darren Bailey and Frédéric Jeannin
Additional Measures
A range of other steps have and will be deployed to protect the Olympic Games. For instance, agreements with Europol and the UK have ensured operational information exchange and international law enforcement co-operation in the lead-up to the Games.
Poland has offered security personnel and a range of other cross-border agreements have been put in place to provide robust, military focussed counter terrorist protection.
More locally, building on the expertise of the French state in counter-terrorism and tackling civil unrest, venue-specific plans have been developed to help combat the risks to attendees. This will entail somewhat drastic security measures which will undoubtedly impact on the speed of getting into venues and the convenience and ease of movement for local residents.
Despite the vocal complaints of Parisians about disruption and traffic congestion already being experienced, the French government remains unapologetic in the development of a comprehensive security framework, including the mobilisation of all French police forces during the Games with any and all law enforcement officers and agents being asked to postpone their holidays until after the event.
New Olympic laws
In addition, specifically for the Olympic Games, new laws have been introduced to permit the French police to utilise Artificial Intelligence and algorithmic CCTV to detect abnormal incidents or conduct and potential threats in public places.
The new law permits eight scenarios to be flagged by AI surveillance software during the Games. These include abandoned objects, contravention on rules of traffic direction, abnormally heavy crowds, and the presence or use of weapons. The algorithms are trained to detect pre-determined events and abnormal behaviour and to send alerts accordingly. It will be for humans to ultimately determine whether to act on it.
Significantly, facial recognition technology will not be permitted in most cases. This commitment has not appeased certain organisations fearful of an erosion of human rights and privacy such as Amnesty International, which believes that the ease with which AI-powered video surveillance can be reconfigured to enable facial recognition and the less than precise legal framework around the new laws provide insufficient legal safeguards.
Close monitoring of how the new laws are deployed can be anticipated both in terms of its effectiveness and legal compliance as the Games proceed.
The longer term
Broadly speaking the Parisian population have mixed feelings towards the Games: proud to host them and have the world looking at Paris, irritated to have their habits disrupted.
Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether the unprecedented security apparatus being assembled around Paris, the overall costs for the event and the considerable disruption to daily lives and routines for Parisians will ultimately have a chilling impact on the number of cities and countries bidding to host major events in future.
Geopolitical tensions across the globe seem unlikely to cool any time soon and cyber risks are only destined to escalate in scale and sophistication. In such an environment, it seems clear that increasingly comprehensive, expensive, and intrusive security arrangements will be required for future major events alongside the attendant disruption to residents for any host city.
When the number of countries prepared to bid to host major sporting competitions has already significantly diminished, event owners may well need to rethink their organisational model and funding arrangements to remain attractive to stage. No doubt the International Olympic Committee is pleased to have the hosts for 2028 (LA) and 2032 (Brisbane) in the bag.
Darren Bailey is a London-based consultant and Frédéric Jeannin a Partner in Paris at international law firm Charles Russell Speechlys.