Airports are set to expand over the coming years thanks to a boom in travel demand despite more restrictive emissions regulations, analysts have forecast.
Rising passenger numbers would drive “significant investment” in expansion projects, making decarbonisation “harder to achieve, ratings agency Moody’s has said in a new report.
In particular, analysts noted a rise in Scope Three emissions, which include aircraft movements and ground access vehicles not owned by the airport but within its territory.
UK-based airports have ramped up investment in expansion projects in recent years.
Among the biggest announcements came from Gatwick, Britain’s second largest airport, which unveiled £2.2bn plans for a second runway last July and has since invested millions in improving its on-site infrastructure.
Stansted and Luton, hubs situated within the ‘Golden Triangle’ and with strong links to the London-Cambridge tech corridor, have also both received approval for significant capacity increases.
And both City Airport and Heathrow, with its long-delayed third runway, are still fighting to keep their respective projects alive against significant opposition.
The drive to expand comes amid a resurgence in European travel demand, which has bounced back dramatically over the last two years from Covid-era lows.
But it has also raised questions over the ability of the aviation industry to hit a 2050 target of net-zero carbon emissions.
Credit: Moody’s
“Spending on decarbonisation initiatives is low compared with overall investment
budgets,” Corrado Trippa, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody’s Ratings, said. According to Moody’s, airports transition spending on Scope 1 and 2 emissions averages out at around 2 to 6 per cent of total budgets.
Trippa also noted the transition to so-called Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), a biofuel lauded by airlines as the key to hitting emissions targets, would be “gradual.” Many in the sector are concerned over the cost and supply of SAF, which is far more expensive to produce than traditional Kerosene-based jet fuels.