For Rishi Sunak, if – and it is still if – the polls are right, the Conservatives could be heading for a major election defeat in less than 48 hours time.
The Prime Minister has hinted he may not quit as Tory leader immediately after the election, if his party loses, but in all likelihood another leadership contest would be on the cards.
Runners and riders who put themselves forward to jostle to replace him will depend to a large extent on which MPs and cabinet ministers lose their seats overnight.
But we’ve taken a look at some of the key figures below.
Kemi Badenoch
The business and trade – and women and equalities – secretary has long been talked of in Westminster as a future Conservative leader, for her no-nonsense approach.
She secured a 27,000-strong majority in Saffron Walden in 2017, and is now standing in North West Essex, the successor seat under boundary changes.
And according to The Sunday Telegraph, senior party figures are calling for Sunak to delay the leadership contest to give “people time to get settled in after the election”, with one source claiming “it quickly became obvious that ‘people’ meant Kemi”.
Victoria Atkins
Health secretary Vicky Atkins, despite only holding a cabinet role for the past six months, is also seen as a potential future “star” – including by deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden.
A leaked recording revealed by the i paper saw Dowden tell constituents in December that when asked “who are the stars of your generation?” He said “there’s only two people from my generation that I could see leading the Conservative party: Rishi Sunak or Vicky Atkins”.
She was first elected to Louth and Horncastle in Lincolnshire in 2015, and won a majority in 2019 of almost 29,000.
Steve Baker
Former so-called ‘hard man of Brexit’ Steve Baker appeared to hint on Monday that he would be up for a run at the leadership himself.
The Northern Ireland minister, who has a majority of just over 4,000 in his Wycombe constituency, told Sky News: “I wouldn’t rule it [a leadership bid] out.
“The reality is that my colleagues have sent for me before the referendum, after the referendum, during Covid and over net zero. And on all four occasions, I’ve led actual MPs to a great degree of success – and I wouldn’t mind the chance to do it again”.
A former home secretary – or immigration minister
Several of those under discussion for the top job have all held the role of home secretary.
From Priti Patel, who served under Boris Johnson, to Suella Braverman who fell out with Sunak, and James Cleverly who took over, it’s clearly seen as a route for the ambitious.
Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who resigned over Sunak’s migration plans, is another name in the frame, with his recent makeover another potential clue at his hopes.
But with Patel, Witham, an 24,000 majority; Braverman, Fareham, 26,000; Cleverly, Braintree, 24,600; and Jenrick, Newark, almost 22,000, all in relatively safe seats, much will depend on exactly who hangs on – and who risks being booted out.
Defenders of the realm
Positioning the Conservative Party as aligned with and representative of Britain’s defence and armed forces has been a key strand of the Tories’ election campaign.
And several leadership hopefuls may be hoping to put their own military credentials to good effect, if they decide to stand.
Tom Tugendhat, security minister (Tonbridge and Malling, almost 27,000); Penny Mordaunt, sword carrier and leader of the House of Commons (Portsmouth North, almost 16,000), and current defence secretary and spreadsheet guru Grant Shapps (Welwyn Hatfield, almost 11,000) are all considered contenders.
Nigel Farage
Once again the leader of an insurgent Reform UK, Nigel Farage has proved an inescapable thorn in the side for the Conservative Party for many years.
Could the maverick – and controversial – figure really take over the Tories from inside Parliament? He’d have to be elected in Clacton-on-Sea first, defect to the party, and stand in and win a leadership race, all of which are far from certain he could achieve.
Unlikely, yes. Impossible? Never say never.