RISHI Sunak and Tory candidates across England will be praying for a national morale boost when England play Serbia in the opening match of their Euro 2024 campaign this weekend.
The Prime Minister sits around 20 points back in most polls but some in his party believe a few England wins could put the country in a better mood – and perhaps a more forgiving one.
Sam Holland, the Tory candidate in Dagenham and Rainham, told City A.M. that “if people feel we’re winning and doing well, it creates a sense of euphoria – and that might start to have an impact on the campaign.”
Evidence however is mixed that football results affect elections. Some in the Labour party blamed Harold Wilson’s defeat in 1970 on England’s catastrophic World Cup defeat to West Germany, complete with a series of howlers from goalkeeper Peter Bonetti, a few days beforehand.
Though Wilson pooh-poohed the idea, one minister wrote that “the moment Bonetti made his third and final hash of it on Sunday, everything simultaneous began to go wrong for Labour for the following Thursday.”
Philip Cowley, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, told City A.M. that the evidence is “very mixed” and while “it seems possible there was a late swing against Labour there were lots of other potential causes.”
In Euro 2024, England will play Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia before the election, as well as second round match if we get that far. A quarter final would be played just a day or two after the July 4 poll.
“If presumably, the hope is for a feel good factor to kick in and propel them to victory, we have to factor in that the election takes place before the quarter finals have taken place. England or Scotland are going to have performed quite spectacularly well in any group or Round of 16 games for there to be any sort of feel good factor,” Cowley continued.
Another Tory candidate, channeling his inner football pundit, told City A.M. that “the manager’s career hangs in the balance” when asked about Rishi Sunak – and under pressure England boss Gareth Southgate.
“The next few weeks are going to be vital as we build some momentum and convince the fans to stick with the long term plan that is working,” they said.
Labour will hope to avoid too many own goals as the party releases its manifesto later today.