As is the competitiveness of this year’s Premiership, I wouldn’t put it past Saracens and Sale Sharks becoming the first two teams in the history of four-team play-offs to produce two away wins.
The Premiership has never seen two away wins in the play-offs in the same season but that could change this weekend.
Northampton Saints play hosts to Saracens on Friday night before Sale Sharks travel to Bath on the following day.
Last time out
Premiership history
Out of the 36 play-off matches in Premiership history – when four teams have taken part in the postseason – only six have resulted in away wins.
And of those six, a third were Saracens winning away at Northampton – in both 2015 and 2010.
Is the writing on the wall for Northampton then? I would say less so.
Saracens have shown they have the ability to turn it on this season – notably against Harlequins at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – but they’ve also been really poor at times – twice against Harlequins and the last time they travelled to Northampton in March.
But Northampton are rested and have been flying this season in the Premiership, so while an upset is on the cards it would not be where I’d bet my mortgage.
At the Rec on Saturday, however, there could be a hostile encounter with Sale coming out on top.
Sale are tough bastards with intelligent rugby brains, they have developed since last year’s losing final and look more conditioned under Alex Sanderson than ever before.
They have that dogged determined mindset, the kind of approach needed to beat a Bath side flying this season.
As for Johann van Graan’s side they have been revitalised this season and more than earned their home semi-final.
But there’s something about them that looks slightly frail; and though the last time Sale lost a game was at the Rec against Bath, Sharks could get their revenge this time around.
Lose and loser
The final we deserve
The final fans deserve is Northampton Saints versus Bath; they play a nice brand of rugby and will fill out Twickenham – especially after returned away allocations from Saracens and Sale in the semi-finals this year.
But there is a solid chance of seeing a repeat of last season’s final between Sale Sharks and Saracens this season due to the nature of the league and its competitiveness.
Whatever happens we have two brilliant semi-finals, with contrasting styles of play, to look forward to.
And with the final a week later and selection for England’s summer tour to New Zealand after that, there’s an awful lot to play for.
As to who I think will win the Premiership in its entirety, that’s to be determined, but I would certainly keep an eye on Sale Sharks this weekend. They could be the ones to cause the biggest upset and win the first away semi-final since Harlequins in 2021.
Away wins in play-offs
YearHomeScoreAway2021Bristol Bears36-43Harlequins2015Northampton Saints24-29Saracens2013Saracens13-27Northampton Saints2010Northampton Saints19-21Saracens2009Harlequins0-17London Irish2008Gloucester25-26Leicester TigersAway wins
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance, experts in leadership development behavioural change and executive coaching support. Follow Ollie on Twitter and on LinkedIn @OlliePhillips11