On Sunday at Wembley, Leeds United and Southampton will do battle in the richest game in football, the Championship play-off final.
The match has earned that tag because it is estimated to be worth £170m to £305m in additional revenue over three seasons to the winners, who gain promotion to the Premier League.
This year, however, the baseline is lower, with Leeds and Southampton guaranteed a minimum uplift of £140m, according to Deloitte’s Sport Business Group.
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That is because both clubs were already receiving so-called parachute payments following their relegation from the Premier League last season.
Why is the Championship play-off final worth £305m?
The value of winning the Championship play-off final comprises two elements: Premier League central distributions and parachute payments.
All clubs in the Premier League receive a distribution of centrally generated revenues – mostly from broadcast contracts – which result in payouts ranging from around £160m for the winners to £100m for the team finishing last.
That is about £95m a year more than clubs receive from the Championship, and that figure is multiplied for every subsequent season teams can stay in the top flight.
Parachute payments – so called because they are designed to give clubs relegated to the far poorer second tier a softer landing – are worth around £35m a year.
A team that is relegated after just one season in the Premier League gets two years of parachute payments, or £70m, while those that survive in the top division for at least one campaign get three years’ worth, or £105m.
Add that to two years of much-improved Premier League distributions (£190m), plus increases in commercial and matchday income that come from being at the top level, and you get to £305m.
Why are Leeds and Southampton set to get less?
Both Leeds and Southampton were only relegated to the Championship last year. That means they are already in receipt of parachute payments, so that benefit is less marked and their minimum estimated financial benefit is £140m.
“This weekend, Wembley hosts the match with the most lucrative prize in world football, where one of these teams will walk away with additional revenues of at least £140m over the next three seasons,” said Tim Bridge, lead partner of Deloitte’s Sports Business Group.
“The prize however is not as significant as it has been in previous years, with both sides having recently felt the benefits, including the financial reward, that come with playing in the top flight.
“Two clubs bolstered by parachute payments are competing in the play-off final for the first time since 2011-12, only the second time this has happened since the turn of the millennium.
“With three of the top four finishing Championship clubs in receipt of parachute payments, the debate over financial distribution across English football and its impact on competitive balance is likely to continue.”
The promise of Premier League revenue makes the Championship play-off final the richest game in football
Will the value of the Championship play-off final continue to increase?
The richest game in football is richer than ever, having grown in line with the size of the broadcast contracts that drive Premier League revenue.
From a minimum of £90m in 2010-12 to £120m in 2013-15 and £170m since 2016, winning the Championship play-off final has mushroomed in value.
But has it now peaked? TV revenues have broadly plateaued, following the pandemic and according to global market trends, and even the Premier League hasn’t been immune.
The competition’s next set of broadcast contracts, to run from 2025 to 2029, are set to be broadly flat or perhaps slightly lower than currently, and that is the direction of travel.
Meanwhile, the future of parachute payments is uncertain amid a bitter and long-running row about the way English football’s riches trickle down the pyramid and its impact on competitiveness.
“The cornerstone of English football’s success has been the ability of all clubs to compete,” added Bridge.
“Maintaining the unscripted drama, perfectly evidenced by occasions such as the Championship play-off final, is crucial for fans, clubs and governing bodies alike.”
So while Championship play-off final hopefuls have never had it so good, it may also be that Leeds or Southampton should enjoy it while it lasts.