Labour may have a strong overall poll lead, but dig a little deeper and on the issues that count – from illegal migration to NHS waiting lists – voters believe things will get worse, says Lachlan Rurlander
If the anthem of the 1997 election was D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, then this election will be Beethoven’s Funeral March.
Voters are done with the Conservatives. Our inaugural voting intention poll on Friday gave Labour a 20-point lead and there is little hope the Conservatives will close it.
But at the same time, the Labour party is struggling to enthuse voters. Be in no doubt, this election will still be a challenge for the Labour Party. Keir Starmer needs a swing of 12.7 per cent from the Conservatives to achieve a majority of one.
The chaos in the SNP will help him there, but this is still a massive ask. It’s more than the swing achieved by Blair in 1997. We are talking records not seen for a generation.
And the challenge is all the greater because voters are simply unenthusiastic about Keir Starmer. Polling we carried out last week showed that voters have low expectations for a Labour Government.
We asked 2,024 respondents if they thought a number of measures would increase or decrease under Labour. The results should concern the Leader of the Opposition.
Only 17 per cent think Labour will be able to reduce illegal immigration, whilst an even lower 10 per cent think Labour will cut legal migration. Fewer than a third (32 per cent) have confidence that Sir Keir Starmer will reduce NHS waiting lists, while over half expect waiting lists to stay the same or get worse.
It’s noteworthy that Starmer has so categorically failed to present himself as an exciting alternative to the Tories. Throughout all this time while the Conservatives have been mired in such terrible poll ratings, scandals, and instability, Keir Starmer could have been presenting himself as a genuinely exciting alternative.
Instead, he’s shown himself to be bland, unexciting and samey. He’s flipflopped on key pledges. He’s held off from making policy commitments. He’s succumbed to the gutter politics of attack ads. Even yesterday’s launch speech was stodgy and vague.
This mixture of low enthusiasm for Labour and hatred for the Conservatives mean this election campaign will be equal parts dull and toxic.
Dull because the result is so widely anticipated. The leaders’ debates will have record low viewing figures. The campaign trail will feel like a victory march, even if Labour will need to work hard to win every vote.
Toxic because in the face of this dispiriting trudge, both parties may resort to baseless attack ads which will alienate voters and lower the tone. The Conservatives deployed American-style attack ads during the locals, while Labour posters accused Rishi Sunak of defending paedophiles. Both show negative campaigning is not the way forward.
The opportunity for team Starmer is to seize the election while they still can. There is the potential for cut through from a genuinely inspiring and optimistic campaigner.
He needs to invigorate the electorate, assume his mantle as future leader and lead with hope. He must counter the toxicity by consolidating the moral high ground and avoiding the gutter. The voters will thank him for it.
The reality is bigger things are at stake. If Starmer cannot make politics optimistic again, then trust in our political system – founded on the right to choose a better alternative – starts to fray.
In our poll we asked if Labour would increase or decrease trust in British politics. 60 per cent said trust would decline or stay at the same, sorry state. Only a quarter said it would increase.
If Starmer can change the mood music then maybe, just maybe, things can only get better.
Lachlan Rurlander is a consultant at Whitestone Insight