WE WERE caught out by the ever-changeable weather last week, as the predicted rain never arrived leaving Newbury’s ground on the quick side for Lockinge Day, which was never going to be any good for our soft ground favouring selections.
With the weather so tough to predict at the moment, it makes ante-post betting even more of a challenge, but if the forecasts are to be believed, Haydock is set to see a lot of rain ahead of this weekend.
The Liverpool track could see upward of 22mm ahead of Saturday, and if that’s the case, then the current good-to-firm will be more like soft come the off.
VADREAM is one horse that will be ideally suited to those softer conditions and is sure to be shorter than her current 16/1 for the Temple Stakes (1.50pm) if the rain does arrive.
Charlie Fellowes’ mare only encountered her favoured racing surface three times last season and emerged with two wins, so it’s clear she is significantly better with cut in the ground.
Despite that statistic, she has run well on good ground on both her starts so far this campaign, first at Bath and then when stepping up on that effort to lose out by only a head in the Group Three Palace House at Newmarket last time.
Soft ground could see her in an even better light, and I can see her going off at far shorter odds given her favoured surface, so it looks well worth taking an early each-way price about her.
Of the others, Live In The Dream and Australian raider Asfoora are unlikely to relish soft conditions, while Regional has a penalty to carry for his win in last season’s Haydock Sprint Cup.
The opening Silver Bowl Handicap (1.15pm) looks an intriguing race and on a tricky betting card, it stands out as a contest where value can be found.
Jane Chapple-Hyam is an underrated trainer in my eyes, and she has made a good start to the season, including when winning a Group Two at York last week with Mill Stream.
Her contender SON OF MAN would surely be a shorter price if trained by more of a household name, so there’s value to be had at 12/1.
Following a win on debut at York last season, this son of Dark Angel was campaigned solely in Group races, running well on all three of his starts in that grade.
He particularly caught the eye when staying on well for third over seven furlongs in the Horris Hill, when handling the heavy ground and looking as though he was crying out for this step up to a mile.
Having won when fresh last season, he is clearly capable first time up, and I thought it was interesting that connections were dropping back into handicaps having campaigned him at a higher level last season.
Another that stood out in the same race was the Tim Easterby-trained CANDONOMORE.
He came within a short-head of winning on debut last season, when just losing out to a rival that went on to finish third in the Acomb Stakes, and his subsequent two runs were also full of promise.
His reappearance couldn’t have been more impressive, when upped to this trip on soft ground at Haydock, as he came effortlessly came clear to win on the bridle.
We know he’ll handle the track and likely conditions, so if he gets in here off a mark of 81, then he should be competitive and the 14/1 on offer is a price to take.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Son Of Man e/w 1.15pm Haydock
Candonomore e/w 1.15pm Haydock
Vadream e/w 1.50pm Haydock