The next two weeks of Premiership action will decide who makes the end of season play-offs.
Eight of the 10 teams can still make the top four, and most of those can still earn a home semi-final.
As it stands, Northampton Saints are four clear of Saracens at the top of the table. Bath are one point further behind, with Bristol Bears and Harlequins another point back.
Sale Sharks are sixth, two points off the top four, and Exeter Chiefs are 10 points – or two bonus point wins – off the top. Leicester are also technically able to make the top four, too, but that is highly unlikely.
Premiership predictions
I do think the current leaders, Northampton Saints, will stay at the summit and earn themselves the honour of being No1 seeds. They are at home to a Gloucester team focusing on another competition this weekend, and should pick up five points, while their final game against Bath could have very little on it by the time the teams kick off.
I also think their final day opponents, Johann van Graan’s Bath, will join them in hosting a home semi-final.
They travel to bottom place Newcastle Falcons this weekend before hosting Northampton Saints knowing their opponents may already have secured a home semi-final. I am predicting 10 out of 10 points for Bath, with the West Country club overtaking Saracens for second.
As for the north Londoners, their run-in is tough. Up first they need to go to the West Country and take on Bristol Bears before a final home match against Sale Sharks next weekend.
It is a tough pair of games for Saracens, but they are famously resilient and will always be among the favourites to lift the Premiership title no matter where they finish in the top four.
Last but not least
And what about that final spot?
Well it is a battle between Bristol Bears, Harlequins, Sale Sharks and Exeter Chiefs – and less likely Leicester Tigers.
They have run-ins of varying difficulties over the next fortnight but I do think Harlequins will make it.
They’re hitting the end of a tough block of games, having played Northampton Saints at Twickenham, Toulouse in the Champions Cup semi-final, and this weekend heading to Exeter Chiefs. They conclude the season at home to Bristol Bears.
I believe they’ll be the team that sneaks through, and will likely head to Franklin’s Gardens in the play-offs for a rematch with Northampton Saints.
So much can happen in the next two weeks – eight into four simply doesn’t go. But what we have is an exciting run-in packed with unpredictability – one result can change everything for three or four teams.
That has been the biggest selling point of the Premiership this year, and that’s why it is so exciting even without relegation.
And for me, a top four of teams from the East Midlands, London and the West Country also helps with the geographical spread of the play-offs – even if the same old teams end up winning the title next month.