First Minister Humza Yousaf is expected to resign today, ahead of two confidence votes which risk ending his premiership.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) leader and head of the Scottish government has now confirmed he will give a press conference at midday today, at Bute House in Edinburgh.
While the situation is fast-moving, we’ve laid out all the potential routes from here.
Immediate resignation
Following a bruising few days, including increasing reports over the weekend that he was expected to quit, Yousaf could choose to announce his resignation effective immediately.
If he does so, according to the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish Parliament would then have 28 days in which to appoint a new First Minister.
This could prove contentious, as after the collapse of the Bute House Agreement – the deal between the SNP and the Scottish Greens – the SNP no longer holds a majority, and is now governing as a minority administration.
An interim First Minister could be in place until a successor is found, most likely former deputy FM, John Swinney, according to Politico’s Playbook.
Resignation later
When Yousaf’s predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon quit the role in a shock move last year, she announced her intention to step down but did not formally quit the post of First Minister until the SNP leadership election had been completed.
This would see a similar set of events as above play out, but with Yousaf in place in the intervening period, while Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) decide on a new leader.
Convention dictates this would be the leader of the largest party; still the SNP, with 63 out of 129 members. But party leaders of the Scottish Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens would also likely put themselves forward.
Yousaf to cling on
While most expect the First Minister to step down, what could happen if he were to refuse calls to go and use today’s announcement to reveal his intention to stand firm?
Well, he faces two no-confidence votes this week already. One is from the Scottish Conservatives which focuses on Yousaf himself as first minister – but is non-binding.
The other is a Scottish Labour motion of no-confidence which would force the whole Scottish government to resign if it were passed.
It’s understood Yousaf himself resigning may save the wider government from the second motion as it would appease the Green Party MSPs from voting for it and triggering a collapse.
Essentially, were he to cling to power, he would likely be forced out later this week anyway.
Early Scottish election?
One less likely outcome may be an early set of Holyrood elections.
While this would not reset the clock on the Parliament, meaning Scotland would go to the polls again when a UK general election is called, it would indicate the scale of chaos north of the border.
If MSPs were unable to decide on a successor to Yousaf, the Parliament would be dissolved and an early Scottish election called.