For Brentford, the return of Ivan Toney was meant to change everything. The west London overachievers endured a sluggish start to the season but the end of Toney’s eight-month ban for betting offences would surely trigger an upturn in fortunes.
Or so the theory went. England striker Toney did indeed inspire a win for Brentford over Nottingham Forest on his comeback appearance in January, but since then results haven’t been anything like as rosy as anticipated.
In the 10 Premier League matches that followed, Brentford have won just once but lost seven times and slipped to 15th, five points above the bottom three. Last year’s ninth-place finish is an increasingly distant memory, replaced by the threat of relegation.
Toney has done his bit, scoring four goals since his reintegration, but Brentford have also missed Bryan Mbeumo, who started the campaign in electric form but has been sidelined for three months with an ankle injury.
The Bees have not been completely barren; their only blank in those last 10 games came in a 1-0 defeat at champions Manchester City. But they don’t appear to be scoring anywhere near as much as they could and perhaps should.
Thomas Frank’s team had 31 goal attempts at home to Manchester United on Saturday but scored just once. Across the whole season they rank eighth in the division for expected goals (xG) but have netted 10 fewer times than the stats predict.
At the same time, Brentford have proved to be a soft touch at the back. Only the bottom three sides have shipped more than their 55 goals, which is almost six more than their expected goals against (xGA).
The club’s rise has been built on the smart application of data science, driven by their owner, Matthew Benham, who made his fortune in gambling, but it doesn’t take a degree in statistics to see that they are heading for the rocks.
On Wednesday, they host Brighton, whose own rise from the lower divisions has also been fuelled by the canny trading of their owner Tony Bloom, a professional gambler who previously employed Benham. So bitter was their falling out that they haven’t spoken for 20 years.
Another defeat could leave Brentford within striking distance of teams in the relegation zone. Happily, however, Frank has revealed that Mbeumo could make his first start since December against the Seagulls, while fellow forward Kevin Schade is close to a comeback too.
“I’m very happy to have Bryan back. It’s crucial, we missed him,” said Frank. “There is no doubt that Bryan has been one of our most important players and one of our most consistent and best players over many years.”
Defenders Ethan Pinnock and Aaron Hickey are also nearing fitness as Brentford prepare for what will probably be the defining sequence of their season – and could determine whether they stay in the top flight for a fourth season in a row.
After Brighton and a trip to Aston Villa on Saturday, they face a trio of six-pointers against survival rivals Sheffield United, Luton and Everton. Now that really could change everything.
Brentford manager Thomas Frank (right) has a key run of games on the horizon