The UK is suffering from the most sustained rise in long-term sickness since the 1990s, a trend which started even before the pandemic, new research shows.
From July 2019 to December 2023, the number of people inactive due to ill-health rose from 2.1m to 2.7m, with a peak of 2.8m last October.
According to the Resolution Foundation, this means the UK has been suffering from the longest upward trend in long-term sickness since the 1990s when economic inactivity increased for 55 months between 1994 and 1998.
This rise in long-term sickness means that the UK is the only G7 economy not to have returned to its pre-pandemic employment rate.
“The Covid-19 pandemic has left an alarming legacy of the longest sustained rise in sickness-related inactivity since the 1990s,” Louise Murphy, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said.
The youngest and oldest workers are the most likely to be out of work, the research found. Indeed, younger adults (16-24) and older adults (50-64), account for 90 per cent of the rise in economic inactivity.
The oldest and youngest working age individuals are also the most likely to be in receipt of health-related Universal Credit too, putting more pressure on government spending.
The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that the rise in inactivity will force up spending on disability benefit by 45 per cent, an increase of £16.1bn.
“Younger and older people together account for nine-tenths of the rise in overall economic inactivity, which could have serious effects both on individual’s living standards and career paths, as well as wider strains on the NHS and welfare spending if we fail to improve the nation’s health and reduce economic inactivity,” Murphy said.
The government has announced plans to try and get people back into work, including introducing stricter criteria on claiming benefits and an expansion to mental health provisions.
The Resolution Foundation argued that tackling long-term sickness needed to be a “top priority” for the next government.