Sadiq Khan on 24-point lead – but Londoners think he’s done poorly on housing and crime

Sadiq Khan has a 24-point lead ahead of his nearest rival as he bids for re-election to a record third term at City Hall.

When pollsters at Savanta, working with the independent Centre for London think tank, asked for Londoners’ voting intentions, the Labour mayor scored 51 per cent of support.

Conservative mayoral hopeful Susan Hall came in on 27 per cent, while Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie was on 10 per cent, Green Party contender Zoë Garbett scored eight per cent, and Reform UK’s candidate Howard Cox had just two per cent support.

However, Sadiq Khan’s lead ahead of the election on May 2 came as voters revealed they were divided on his performance as mayor on key issues such as crime and housing.

The findings from the market research consultancy showed at least half of Londoners think Khan has done badly or very badly on homelessness – 58 per cent; knife crime and gangs – also 58 per cent; and improving the capital’s housing availability – 56 per cent. 

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “Khan’s lead is commanding, but potentially deceptive. 

“Londoners are not entirely convinced of his record on a number of their key issues, including crime and housing.”

Centre for London chief executive Antonia Jennings said: “The job of mayor is representing Londoners, recognising demographic and geographical differences in priorities. 

“With rough sleeping up by 50 per cent in the last decade and knife crime in London up 22 per cent in the last year, it’s unsurprising these issues are at the forefront of Londoners’ minds. We cannot see these trends continue.”

Asked the most important issues facing London, respondents chose inflation and the cost of living – 53 per cent; the NHS – 46 per cent; housing – 39 per cent; and crime – 33 per cent.

And more than half of London residents said Khan, who has been in office since 2016, has done well or very well at making the capital diverse, multicultural, and tolerant – 59 per cent; protecting green spaces – 56 per cent; and managing the transport network – 53 per cent.

They were split down the middle on his overall performance, with 38 per cent saying they were satisfied with his time in office and 37 per cent saying they were dissatisfied. But there was no divide on Sadiq Khan’s popularity between inner and outer London.

Voters aged 18-34 overwhelmingly backed Khan – on 64 per cent – with Hall joint second – 11 per cent – alongside the Lib Dems, emphasising the Conservative’s challenge in the capital. 

Hopkins added: “London polling has historically overstated Labour and understated the Conservatives performance. 

“Alongside the potential impact of a new electoral system and Voter ID laws, this could be a tighter race than these topline figures imply.” 

“However, the most likely outcome with an unpopular Conservative candidate and an even more unpopular Conservative government is a resounding Khan victory.” 

Savanta interviewed 1,510 UK adults online between March 8-12 and weighted the data to be representative of all Londoners aged over 18, including by their 2019 election vote.