Why the London mayoral election could be closer than you think

Swish suit, shiny shoes, sharp haircut, and a spray of breath freshener: Sadiq Khan, to many, is the image of a consummate, professional London politician.

The mayor is rarely off-message in interviews or media huddles and – given I’ve been interviewing him at various titles since 2021 – cracks jokes and remembers reporters’ names.

At the launch of his re-election campaign for a record third term at City Hall this week, he looked cool and confident as he was supported by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. 

It was clear from the launch that Labour is at pains to leave no paving stone unturned in their bid to hold onto the capital.

While some assume this will be a walk in a park for Khan, the race might be closer than expected. 

According to the New Statesman, Khan’s advisers have been sharing emails suggesting a so-called “perfect storm” could create a path to power for the Conservatives. How so?

A number of Khan’s policies have generated controversy. None more so than ULEZ, where Conservative challenger Susan Hall is trying to galvanise the residual anger to attack Khan. 

Hall also wants to take him to task over crime. Trust in the Met has fallen to record lows. Arguably, this has a lot to do with killers and rapists acting with apparent impunity within the force itself. 

But, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures in October 2023 found knife crime incidents in London had risen more than 20 per cent year-on-year, with reported knife point robberies up 36 per cent. 

Rape statistics for 2023 also saw a two per cent drop year-on-year but were still up by 18 per cent compared to March 2019-2020. Antisocial behaviour, murder and gun crime, however, do appear to be trending downward over time.

While there is a question mark about whether all crimes have increased under Khan, he is ultimately responsible for policing in the capital, and attacks on this issue could work for the Tories.

London’s struggling night time economy is also another sore spot that Hall could expose during the campaign. 

Beyond these problem areas, Khan also lacks a big legacy project that demonstrates what he has done with his time in power. He clearly views his efforts to get kids breathing cleaner air as his overarching political ambition, but the policy doesn’t make you think of his name in the same way that, say, Boris’ bikes do. 

There are electoral changes too that alter the political landscape for Khan this time around. 

Mayoral elections, until the government passed the Elections Act in 2022, were held under the ‘supplementary vote’ system, offering voters a first and a second choice vote. 

Second choices were then transferred after the first round. This meant a Green supporter could back their preferred candidate, and then opt for, say, Labour in the second round.

But now, like elections to parliament, voting will be done by first-past-the-post. 

Khan has publicly admitted he is worried about the change, and accused the Conservatives of “changing the rules to make it easier for themselves to win.” 

He’s urging the progressive left (i.e. Lib Dem and Greens) to “lend me your vote” to avoid waking up to a “rabid Conservative mayor”.

Voter ID requirements will also be in place for this election, which were also introduced under the Elections Act – a change Labour opposed at the time it was being passed. 

The Electoral Reform Society has warned “a greater proportion of 18-25-year-olds as well as people from ethnic minority backgrounds said they had turned up to polls without ID”. 

With nearly half of Londoners identifying as black or from an ethnic minority, and the capital’s inner boroughs packed with younger people – groups that have traditionally been more likely to support the Labour party – it is a potentially worrying prospect for Khan. 

However, ultimately, it is unlikely these electoral changes alone will lead to Khan losing the top job. 

While the first-past-the-post system could boost the Conservatives, Labour is the largest party in London. It has more MPs in the region than any other.

Almost twice as many London constituencies voted for Labour than the Tories and the Lib Dems combined in the 2019 general election – and that was when Boris Johnson was popular. It was a similar story at the 2022 local council elections.

Chris Hopkins, research director at polling firm Savanta, agreed. He said that while there is clearly a “huge chunk of expectation management” from Labour, he “would be astounded if Sadiq Khan doesn’t win”. 

From voter ID and first-past-the-post, to Khan not being “particularly popular” or delivering on key issues, all would have to “conspire against him”, Hopkins said, for the election to prove “tighter than we think”. 

What’s more, unfortunately for CCHQ, Hall is just an altogether weaker candidate. 

Her relatively low profile, gaffe-prone style, and past controversies, such as appearing to endorse racist and Islamophobic content online – she has said she “never meant to cause offence” – means the blows just aren’t landing in the way a stronger opponent might deliver.

This year’s race is, rightly, set to be a closer contest. Londoners deserve the best possible representation, at all levels of government, and a tough competition can only improve that. 

But when all’s said and done, I wouldn’t count out Khan securing an historic third term just yet.