Houthi attacks in the Red Sea won’t end until the people of Iran are free

As violence escalates, our columnist Eliot Wilson argues that Iranian involvement in conflicts in the Middle East can’t be ignored forever

It was only a matter of time. Last Wednesday, three crew members were killed in a Houthi missile attack on the MV True Confidence 50 nautical miles south-west of Aden. The sailors – two Filipino and one Vietnamese – were the first casualties since the Houthi militants began their campaign of violence in the Red Sea on 19 November 2023, but only the most eternal optimist imagines they will be the last.

A spokesman for the violent Islamist group claimed the True Confidence had been attacked because it was “American”. In fact it was Barbados-flagged, operated by a Greek shipping company and owned by a Liberian concern, and was travelling from China to Saudi Arabia. The idea that the Houthis are crusaders in a righteous protest against the conflict in Gaza is wearing thinner and thinner.

Assistance to the stricken vessel was subsequently provided by a destroyer from the Indian Navy, INS Kolkata, which has been deployed on force protection duties at the mouth of the Red Sea since the beginning of the year. This reminds us that the crisis is truly international: so far the Houthi have indiscriminately attacked ships flying the flags of the Bahamas, Malta, Liberia, Panama, Norway, Gabon, Barbados, Singapore and others.

More importantly, the economic effects do not discriminate. The Red Sea is vital for between 10 and 15 per cent of global trade, and 20-30 per cent of the world’s container shipping, and the attacks on merchant vessels have caused that to plummet. Many marine insurers now require a warranty of no Israeli involvement – which amounts to a de facto sanction – though one suspects these are not being read by Houthi decision-makers. This adds to the costs inherent in rerouting traffic round the Cape of Good Hope, an extra ten days or more, and is driving up prices and inflation.

There is a particularly grotesque irony that the Houthi violence has had a major effect on humanitarian aid to Sudan, where there are more than 7m internally displaced refugees and looming famine. Shipments which previously took one or two weeks now require months as vessels avoid the Bab-el-Mandeb, the Houthis’ very own shooting gallery.

Some countries have stepped up to the plate. In December 2023, the United States announced the creation of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational coalition of forces to protect freedom of navigation through the Red Sea, and in January the United Nations Security Council agreed a resolution condemning the Houthis’ actions. The US and the United Kingdom have carried out airstrikes and missile strikes against targets in Yemen which the Pentagon estimates have destroyed 20 or 30 per cent of the Houthis’ offensive capacity, but taking on an opponent as relatively crude and unsophisticated as the Houthi movement is not easy.

Whatever assessments are made in Washington or elsewhere, action by the West has clearly not ended this crisis. The first US/UK strikes took place on 12 January, since when the True Confidence was the 20th merchant vessel to be attacked. Moreover, commitment by allies has been disappointing. France, Spain and Italy all declined to join Prosperity Guardian, as if distancing themselves from American leadership would give their commerce some protection.

The United States and its allies will, rightly, seek to maintain military pressure on the Houthis with ongoing strikes on their facilities in Yemen. The question of Iranian involvement, however, cannot be ignored forever. There is substantial evidence now that Iranian personnel are working directly with the militants in Yemen, that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is providing targeting and intelligence support and that drones and missiles are coming from Iran.

Proverbially the only way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time. That may not be the case in the Red Sea: attempting to tackle individual threats may distract from comprehending the bigger picture. Western military force may be able to contain the threat level, but unless we have a regional strategy which accepts the central and malevolent role of Iran, we are working around the margins and there will be no respite.

It is time to put the Iranian leadership on notice. We support your oppressed people, whom you have gaslit again in recent elections, but we are your despotic regime’s implacable enemies. This ends when the Islamic Republic is displaced and the people of Iran are free.