WITH less than two weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival, it is no surprise this weekend is a little quieter but there is still some decent action to get stuck into at Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury.
The feature at the Berkshire course is the Greatwood Gold Cup (1.55pm), where there could be some value to be had by taking a chance on Warren Greatrex’s BILL BAXTER.
He’s being prepared to try to follow up his success in last year’s Topham Chase at the Grand National meeting, but I doubt connections would say no to taking in this valuable prize en route to Aintree.
Following a below par run last time out at Cheltenham, he’s been dropped a further three pounds in the weights, meaning he now lines up here off a mark of 135, only two pounds above the mark he won the Topham off.
If you look back to before his Cheltenham effort, he ran a taking race on heavy ground at Haydock, when staying on well to finish fourth behind winner Famous Bridge.
That came over a trip in excess of three miles and bar the winner, he was the only horse making up ground at the finish, so there’s no doubt he’s a strong stayer dropped back to this trip.
Excess stamina could be a bonus here, as with the going currently soft and with rain around it could be pretty testing by the weekend.
Heavy ground that is drying out is perhaps the hardest work of all, and if those tacky conditions present themselves at Newbury on Saturday, then this race is going to be some test.
Bill Baxter should be well equipped to handle them, though, so quotes of 12/1 in places look very fair and he would be a strong each-way selection.
Another I thought was worth forgiving a poor run last time out is Paul Nicholls’ KANDOO KID.
The champion trainer has a sparkling record in this contest, having won it a record nine times, most recently with San Benedeto in 2019.
While Kandoo Kid weakened quickly at Doncaster last time, the step up to three miles for the first time might have been a touch too far and he should be happier now back to this 2m4f.
Newbury seems to bring out the best in him too, as he’s finished a close second and also won over this course and distance when beating a strong rival in Venetia Williams’ Frero Banbou three starts back.
A mark of 140 should be manageable and hopefully Harry Cobden will be aboard, so he’s another to keep onside at 8/1.
A horse who went into my notebook after an eye-catching run last time at Sandown, where he may well have won were it not for mistakes at the final few fences, is CERTAINLY RED.
Lydia Richards’ 10-year-old is doubly entered this weekend in Doncaster’s Grimthorpe Handicap (3.40pm) as well as the veterans’ handicap chase (1.20pm) that opens Newbury’s card.
At the moment the markets suggest he is more likely to go down the veterans’ route as he’s a general 7/2 for that race, while you can get 11/1 in places about him in the Grimthorpe.
I’ll be keeping a keen eye on the markets ahead of the final declarations tomorrow morning, but considering he looks feasibly treated off a mark of 135, and seems to be running into form, he’ll be of strong interest wherever he turns up.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Bill Baxter e/w 1.55pm Newbury
Kandoo Kid e/w 1.55pm Newbury
Certainly Red e/w 1.20pm Newbury or 3.40pm Doncaster