Three by-elections are taking place this month, in the latest test of the strength of Rishi Sunak’s government.
Voters will go to the polls in Tory-held Wellingborough and Kingswood this week, while later this month ballots will open in the Labour seat of Rochdale.
City A.M. breaks down everything you need to know about the three electoral tests.
Where are they?
Wellingborough is a market town in Northamptonshire, around 65 miles from London. The area is seen as an aspirational quarter of Middle England – dubbed the so-called ‘Blue Wall’.
While Kingswood is a town in Gloucestershire, just a few miles outside Bristol. It has swung between Tory and Labour, but the former Conservative MP held an 11,000-strong majority.
And Rochdale is a town in Greater Manchester, near the edge of the South Pennines. The seat has been Labour or Liberal Democrat held since 1972 – other than when Labour MP Simon Danczuk was suspended over reportedly sending explicit messages to a 17-year-old.
Why are the by-elections happening?
The by-election in Wellingborough is taking place after former Conservative MP Peter Bone was suspended from Parliament after being found to have bullied a staff member. More than 10 per cent of his voters then opted to ‘recall’ him, meaning a by-election has to be held.
In Kingswood, which will be abolished under new constituency boundaries at the next general election, former Tort net zero tsar Chris Skidmore resigned in protest against the government’s plans to boost oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
While Rochdale MP Tony Lloyd vacated the seat on his death from leukaemia in January 2024. He was elected to the constituency in 2017, but had been an MP for 36 years in total.
When are they being held?
The ballots in Wellingborough – with a Conservative majority of 18,540 – and Kingswood will take place on Thursday, February 15, with results expected early Friday morning.
In Rochdale, the ballot will take place on Thursday, February 29.
Who is standing?
Helen Harrison is standing for the Tories in Wellingborough. A local councillor, she is also the partner of former MP Bone, who won the seat in 2005.
Labour’s candidate is Northamptonshire-raised charity worker Gen Kitchen, while the Lib Dems are fielding former police inspector and now care worker, Ana Savage Gunn.
Candidates are also standing for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, Refom UK, Britain First, the Green Party, and four independents.
The Conservative candidate in Kingswood is Sam Bromiley, a social worker, who is the current leader of the Tory group on South Gloucestershire Council.
Former mayor of Lewisham, south east London, Damien Egan, is the Labour candidate. He lived in the area as a child, where he experienced living in temporary accommodation.
Local councillor Andrew Brown is standing for the Lib Dems. Reform and the Green Party are also fielding candidates.
In Rochdale, Labour county council group leader Azhar Ali, a former Blair and Brown-era advisor is standing for the party. He has come in for criticism for saying Israel “allowed” the October 7 attacks to happen so it could launch its offensive in Gaza. He has since apologised, but calls remain for Labour to distance themselves from him.
Landscaper Paul Ellison, who won Rochdale Man of the Year in 2020 for helping the area win a national horticultural prize, is standing for the Conservatives.
Former Labour MP Danczuk is standing for Reform UK, while George Galloway is on the ballot for the Workers Party. The Lib Dems, Green Party, Official Monster Raving Loony Party and four independent candidates are also standing, although the Green candidate has said he will no longer campaign, after historic anti-Islam comments emerged online.
How will the by-elections affect politics?
With the three contests seen as yet another electoral test for Sunak’s government, the results will be watched closely.
If Labour are able to hold on to Rochdale and win both Kingswood and Wellingborough from the Tories, it will be seen as a major boost to Sir Keir Starmer ahead of the general election.
While for Sunak, a triple loss could prompt further rumblings of a potential leadership challenge, following Sir Simon Clarke’s recent call for him to resign.
A more split result, with the Tories holding on to one of their two seats would be an undeniable boost for the party – but would still be unlikely to spell longer-term success.