England have been given only a six per cent chance of winning the Six Nations Championship by number-crunchers at QBE.
That is even less than Scotland, who have never won the championship since it expanded 25 years ago but have a 10 per cent chance, according to the insurer.
England are without long-time captain Owen Farrell, with Jamie George taking the armband, and lost fly-half Marcus Smith to injury this week.
Holders Ireland are the favourites to lift the trophy again, with a 46 per cent probability, ahead of France on 33 per cent. Wales have a five per cent chance, while Italy’s probability of winning is statistically zero.
Ireland are tipped to repeat last year’s Grand Slam if, as expected, they can edge their heavyweight opening clash with France in Marseille this weekend. No side has won consecutive Grand Slams in the Six Nations era.
“The QBE predictor anticipates a record Grand Slam for Ireland but this is dependent on a close win against France followed by four further victories,” said the company’s director of underwriting David Jones.
QBE’s forecast, which is based on simulating the Six Nations 10,000 times, has England beginning with a win in Italy and Scotland defeating Wales in Cardiff.
“The predictor backs Ireland, England and Scotland to win on the opening weekend of the 2024 Six Nations tournament despite all playing away from home, underlining the point that we must be prepared for surprise outcomes,” Jones added.
“Just as we advise businesses to prepare for unexpected events, the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”
Ireland are favourites for the Six Nations, with England fourth