FOR MANY, today’s feature, the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30pm), is a rematch between last year’s Arkle 1-2, El Fabiolo and Jonbon.
The head-to-head form between the two can’t split them at one win apiece, but recent form makes El Fabiolo the one to beat, and that’s reflected in his price of just 1/2.
Jonbon needs to make amends for a shock defeat at odds of 1/4 last time out, and his current price of 4/1 looks about right.
El Fabiolo is a perfect six from six over fences, including beating Jonbon in the Arkle 12 months ago, and if he reproduces his run from the Dublin Chase last month then he’ll be a very tough horse to beat.
Backing him at odds-on isn’t a very interesting play though, while Jonbon makes little appeal at 4/1, so I’d rather look down the field at something that could outrun its odds.
That horse is CAPTAIN GUINNESS.
He can be a very stylish jumper on his day, as shown when putting in a flawless display to win the Fortria Chase at Navan on his seasonal reappearance.
He’ll need to step up if he’s to go and win a Champion Chase, but he can certainly cause a shake-up to the placings if on-song.
He hasn’t been right in his two starts since the turn of the year, with the vet reporting him to be “clinically abnormal” after being pulled up at Leopardstown over Christmas, then he clearly wasn’t 100 percent when a well-beaten third at the Dublin Racing Festival.
That is a worry, but Henry de Bromhead has a great knack of getting horses right for the big one in March, and particularly those over fences.
You just have to look back at the likes of a 10-year-old Special Tiara sparking back into life to win this race in 2017, followed by Put The Kettle On winning both the Arkle and Champion Chase.
The way this year’s renewal is shaping up will suit Captain Guinness too, as he’s at his best when settling just in behind the leaders off a decent pace.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE 1-2-3
1 El Fabiolo
2 Captain Guinness
3 Jonbon
Jonbon could be ridden aggressively and Edwardstone will have similar ideas of getting on with things in front, while El Fabiolo won’t want to be too far back either.
That cocktail of pace on testing ground could leave the door open to a more patiently ridden Captain Guinness.
I can see him picking off one or two of them up the Cheltenham hill and like the idea of an each-way bet-to-nothing.
BetVictor have a market betting without El Fabiolo, with Captain Guinness priced at 9/2, which I think looks like an each-way bet-to-nothing.
Edwardstone is the one who’s more fancied to occupy the final place on the podium.
He’s 5/2 in the betting without market, which looks very short for a horse who’s won just one of his last seven starts.
Admittedly he did look rejuvenated at Newbury last time out, but that was a very moderate renewal of the Game Spirit and he won’t have it all his own way in this.
He finished well down the field in last year’s Champion Chase on soft ground, where Captain Guinness finished second, and at the prices I’m happy to take a chance on something similar happening this year.
POINTERS
Captain Guinness w/o El Fabiolo e/w 3.30pm Cheltenham
Already advised
Captain Guinness e/w 16/1