An AI-powered model for home healthcare can reduce carbon emissions by around 15 times compared with hospital care, new research has found, adding an environmental dimension to the case for shifting more care out of hospitals and into the community.
The study, conducted by decarbonisation consultancy Industrial Energy Pioneers (IEP), found that Healthtech company Cera’s home-first model produces 2.9kg of CO₂e emissions per patient per day.
This compares with an estimated 33kg for a low-intensity hospital bed day, and up to 77.6kg for a high-intensity bed day.
The findings suggest that many hospitalisations Cera prevents fall between these ranges, making its model on average 15 times more carbon-efficient.
IEP estimated that Cera’s approach saves around 3,335 tonnes of carbon annually, the equivalent of sequestering nearly 1,700 acres of woodland or keeping 120,000 petrol or diesel cars off UK roads for a week.
Hidden environmental benefits
Cera, which employs around 10,000 carers and nurses delivering 2.5m home visits a month, uses predictive AI tools to identify risks of hospitalisation in older people.
The technology has been shown to prevent more than half of avoidable hospital admissions and reduce falls by around 20 per cent among high-risk patients.
Dr Ben Maruthappu, founder and chief executive of Cera, told City AM the analysis highlights a “hidden benefit” of prevention-focused care.
“Following on from the news that Cera has now saved the NHS and government £1bn, it’s great to see the findings from this new independent analysis showing our AI-backed home healthcare model is 15 times more carbon-friendly than alternatives”.
“Not only are we improving lives and saving resources at a critical time for public spending, we’re also contributing to a more environmentally friendly future for healthcare”.
Dr Abhishek Asthana, associate professor in energy engineering at Sheffield Hallam University and Director of IEP, rejected concerns that AI’s own energy demands risk cancelling out environmental gains.
“The suggestion that energy consumption from AI outweighs the potential environmental benefits is misguided”, he told City AM.
“Despite the ongoing noise about how much energy AI uses, this analysis firmly shows how technology and AI, when used for prevention, can significantly drive down emissions, contributing to a much more sustainable future for healthcare, both financially and environmentally”, he claimed.
Cost savings and scalability
The emissions findings follow recent figures showing Cera’s predictive AI system has saved the NHS and government over £1bn to date, or around £1.5m a day, equivalent to the cost of 25,000 nurses’ salaries for a year.
Cera’s model has been positioned as an example of how social care could act as the “frontline of prevention” for high-risk over-65s, easing pressures on an NHS struggling with bed shortages and delayed discharges.
“These figures show the power of technology and AI to save money, increase productivity and help transform public services – delivering better care, for less,” Maruthappu told City AM last month.
But while the numbers are promising, questions remain around scalability.
Social care funding frameworks currently reward providers based on time and volume of visits, rather than outcomes – a misalignment Maruthappu argues needs to be addressed.
Integrating AI into fragmented health and care systems also raises operational and ethical challenges, despite reported accuracy rates of over 80 per cent in predicting hospitalisations and falls up to a week in advance.
Government interest in digital transformation is growing, but a recent tech UK report warned that slow procurement processes, outdated IT infrastructure and limited AI expertise could hold back wider adoption.
Healthcare accounts for an estimated 4.4 per cent of global carbon emissions, and NHS England has pledged to reach net zero by 2045.
Maruthappu said: “AI-powered home healthcare is the future, not just of social care or care in the community, but of our whole approach to healthcare. If we want a health system fit for the future, it must be sustainable, not just financially and logistically, but environmentally too”.