From headaches over Europe, to managing Sino-philes vs sceptics, the job of a prime minister – particularly when it comes to foreign policy – can often resemble something of a high-wire act, usually minus a safety net. Get it wrong, and the consequences could be severe, but pull it off, and the rewards are plentiful.
Enforcing cabinet unity, maintaining party discipline, and shoring up public support often proves challenging enough, and that’s before you get to negotiating with the foreign leaders themselves, whether on an Irish backstop, or fresh flow of Chinese investment.
Keir Starmer has already shown a clear focus on international affairs – travelling abroad frequently since his election, and being one of the only two G7 leaders to attend the COP29 climate summit. But Trump back in office has already moved to shift the geopolitical reality – and for Starmer, walking the tightrope between the US, the EU and, yes, China, may prove to be a headache that comes to define his premiership.
The US president’s foreign policy agenda – at the moment – is centred around the twin, and interrelated questions of tariffs, and migration. Trump has agreed to hold off on 25 per cent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico – but imposed a 10 per cent rate on Chinese imports.
While President Biden kept some of Trump’s 2016-era tariffs in place, economists are now warning of concerns over an emerging trade war – with the Tax Foundation suggesting US households could ultimately see average tax increases of more than $800 this year alone.
Trump has also vowed to impose tariffs on the European Union, over his unhappiness at the US’ trade deficit with the bloc. America imports more from Europe than it exports to the continent, and Trump has repeatedly made the protectionist – and election-winning – argument that this hurts US manufacturing, and thereby jobs.
According to Marco Forgione, director-general of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade (CIE&IT), “No one should doubt President Trump and his administration’s resolve to not only put right, in their view, America’s exploitation by other nations but more importantly to reset the entire global system.”
With Britain now separate from the EU, following Brexit, the UK has its own trading relationship with the US. And the President has implied a better deal with the UK could be “worked out”. Trump told reporters in recent days Starmer has been “very nice” and that the two leaders are “getting along very well” after “numerous phone calls”.
Keep friends close, and other friends closer?
However, this all comes as Starmer is aiming to reset the UK’s relationship with the EU – potentially putting him on a collision course with the White House. The potential clash also comes as Starmer hosted the Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen for dinner at No10, amid a diplomatic row between Denmark and the US over Donald Trump’s claims that he wants to acquire Greenland.
Unfortunately for Starmer, who hasn’t been averse so far to seeking the advice of his predecessors – bringing in New Labour-era ministers, advisers and officials including Pat McFadden, Jonathan Powell, and appointing Lord Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US – a lot of this is new territory. As Stephen Walt, in Foreign Policy, wrote: “The Trump administration’s bellicose approach to traditionally pro-American countries such as Canada or Denmark is unprecedented.”
Thus far, the Prime Minister has insisted the UK does not have to make a choice between the US and the EU. And some would argue, what else can he do? He vowed it was not an “either-or” scenario, and that both relationships were important to Britain – and would be “for many, many years to come”.
Thus far, the Prime Minister has insisted the UK does not have to make a choice between the US and the EU.
But Starmer’s push towards Europe – attending a European Council dinner, with the aim of forging closer ties on defence, security and trade – won’t escape notice here at home, either.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage – a longstanding campaigner for Brexit, who has pitched himself as a UK outrider to Trump – said he believes the UK can be “friendly” with the EU. However, he argued: “If we start to tie ourselves to industrial collaboration… then we find ourselves with less flexibility in doing deals with countries like America.”
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey took a much different approach. “The British government can’t just sit back and hope Trump won’t hit us with tariffs directly,” Sir Ed has argued. “He’s proven time and again how unpredictable he is and our economy will be hurt by this trade war anyway, which will push up prices for families in the UK.”
Downing Street is understandably eager to stress the continuity of the US-UK special relationship, and the value of the two nations to one another as trading partners. That “fair balanced trading relationship”, Starmer’s official spokesman said, is “worth around £300bn… with £1.2 trillion invested in each other’s economies”.
And Forgione, similarly, reflected the balance of risk versus reward when it comes to handling the situation. “For the UK, politically, economically and diplomatically, sat between the US, EU and China, the opportunities are significant, but so too are the risks,” he cautioned.
Team Starmer will hoping this is one high-wire act the UK can balance to perfection.