Rishi Sunak was banking on a sunshine boost this polling day, but will today’s weather affect voting behaviour? Professor Franz Buscha explains
It’s election day, and the forecast is somewhat mixed. Chance of sun, rain and cloud. What exactly the weather is like matters because there is a plethora of research that shows that weather affects our well-being, our mood, our satisfaction and many other feelings we have about our daily events (including voting!). Generally, sunny days lift spirits and enhance happiness, while overcast or rainy days contribute to a dip in mood.
However, the seasonal effects on mood are significantly stronger than daily weather variations. People become more happy (or less depressed) in the summer compared to the winter when compared to average sunny days vs. average rainy days. Maybe that was Mr Sunak’s plan all along – the summer effect would create such happiness that the last 14 years would be quickly forgotten.
It’s unlikely, so the next best thing for Conservatives is to wish for rain; lots of rain, maybe some snow, too. It has been shown that poor weather has a statistical effect on voter turnout and election results. However, the margins are tight. One inch of rain is associated with a drop in voter turnout by 1-2 per cent. This drop is not uniform, and research has shown that younger voters and those from lower socio-economic backgrounds are more affected by inclement weather events. That generally translates into lower turnout for Labour-type parties.
When things get tight, this matters. For example, the US elections of 1960 (Kennedy vs Nixon) and 2000 (Bush vs Gore) were likely determined by weather effects. It was particularly sunny for Kennedy whilst it rained in Florida in 2000. Both elections were won by tiny fractions. Florida was won by 537 votes from 6m. Kennedy beat Nixon by 100,000 votes from 70m. But voting needs to be very tight indeed.
The Brexit vote was also statistically affected by heavy rainfall, especially in Southeast England and London, but the ultimate effect remained inconsequential. Counterfactual analysis suggested a differential outcome in the region of 0.3-0.7 per cent. Too small to affect a 52-48 per cent split (indeed, in this case, sunshine would have widened the gap further).
There is little danger of the weather affecting today’s result. London’s average monthly rainfall is about 2-3 inches. The forecast today is dry if cloudy, and even a month’s worth of rain resulting in massive torrential flooding is highly unlikely to swing things at this point. The biggest impact that rain will have had on this election is Rishi Sunak’s drenched imagery from the Number 10 election announcement. This likely, subconsciously, cemented how much of the media and public perceived the achievements of the Conservative party.
Franz Buscha is a professor of economics in Westminster Business School, University of Westminster