Reform UK seem to be serious about winning in London…is it time for London to start taking Reform UK seriously? Asks James Ford
We are barely half way through January, and already Reform UK are having a good year. In a single, blistering week they unveiled Laila Cunningham as their candidate to challenge Sadiq Khan, witnessed polling putting them in second place with voters in London and filled the ExCeL London conference centre for a major rally. It should be clear to everyone that Reform are taking London seriously as a political battlefield and growing in confidence when it comes to their prospects for winning council seats, constituencies, boroughs and even, potentially, City Hall itself.
Conventional wisdom has long been that London would be the toughest of political nuts for Reform UK to crack. What appeals to the burghers of Boston and the citizens Clacton, it is assumed, is not as seductive to voters in Bermondsey or Clapham. London is thought to be too cosmopolitan, too diverse, too internationalist and, perhaps most importantly, too orientated towards Remain to be fertile territory for the kind of politics that Farage’s turquoise army is peddling.
However, for all of the ways in which London is politically, economically and socially exceptional from the rest of the UK, the capital’s politics do not exist in a vacuum. Reform UK have topped no fewer than 170 consecutive national opinion polls since the 2024 general election and dominated the headlines for months. So, it should not come as a surprise that even Londoners have to sit up and take notice. If Farage is increasingly seen as a possible – even likely – Prime Minister, is it really so unthinkable that Reform may end up running some London boroughs and (maybe even) City Hall?
Reform UK have clearly grasped one of the essential truths of London mayoral politics: being seen as the main challengers to Labour is probably the best position to be in. You can still present yourself as the plucky underdogs (a claim that Reform likes to make nationwide) yet still campaign on the basis of being best placed to beat the incumbent
Reform UK have clearly grasped one of the essential truths of London mayoral politics: being seen as the main challengers to Labour is probably the best position to be in. You can still present yourself as the plucky underdogs (a claim that Reform likes to make nationwide) yet still campaign on the basis of being best placed to beat the incumbent. If you are the ‘real opposition’ to the serving Mayor then you can expect to pick up additional support (and those all-important second-preference votes) from those parts of the electorate who just want change and don’t much care what form that change comes in.
Stealing a march
By being first out of the gates with a candidate for City Hall, Reform have stolen a march on all the other parties in London. They have injected energy and momentum into their campaigning across London not just ahead of the mayoral contest due in 2028 but ahead of the borough elections taking place this May (which always act as ‘mid-term’ elections for City Hall and provide an essential barometer of how allegiances are shifting in London politics).
Most discombobulated by Reform’s ambitious manoeuvres will be the Conservatives. The party is hoping that successes in London in the borough elections in the Spring – particularly the possibility of retaking flagship authorities like Wandsworth or Westminster – would signal something of a recovery from the party’s historic misfortunes in the capital (the party currently has its record lowest hauls of London MPs, seats on the London Assembly and councillors) and distract from likely losses in Scotland and Wales on the same night. The Conservatives have, since Boris Johnson stood down as Mayor in 2016, struggled to mobilise their base in London and to find a popular, high-profile candidate to run for City Hall. It does not bode well for them that Reform have found a strong candidate and can fill ExCeL London with activists for a rally when there is still over two years until Londoners go to the polls to choose their Mayor.
Reform are not yet the natural party of London and Laila Cunningham is not a shoe-in to be Mayor of London. But Reform UK have issued a clear signal of intent. It should certainly serve as a warning to other parties – including Labour – that they need to raise their game in London or risk being swept aside.
James Ford is a former adviser to Boris Johnson during his time as Mayor of London