Finance chiefs have begun the year fretting over the spectre of war and rising global tensions as President Trump’s shock operation to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro put investor nerves on edge.
A quarterly survey by Big Four accounting firm Deloitte showed that “geopolitical risks”, which can include everything from higher tariffs to conflict and diplomatic rows, remain the biggest concern to top UK businesses.
It ranked higher than the risks of UK competitiveness and poor productivity, a bubble in housing and financial assets, and higher energy prices.
The survey, which was taken in early December, showed executives’ unease about foreign affairs ahead of a busy year in politics amid an ongoing war in Ukraine, simmering tensions in Taiwan and mid-term elections in the US.
Geopolitical risks scored a rating of 65 in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to 62 in the previous quarter. Geopolitics has topped the list of risks since 2022, with poor UK productivity levels trailing as the second top risk.
The Trump administration’s declaration that it will “run” policy in Venezuela coupled with bellicose warnings to leaders in Colombia, Cuba and even Greenland look set to fuel questions over the state of international relations and the impact on global trade.
Investors leaped on the weekend news of regime change in Venezuela. On Monday, shares in major US-listed oil companies such as Chevron, Halliburton and ExxonMobil grew while defence stocks across Europe and the UK also rose sharply.
Third of finance chiefs say uncertainty level is ‘high’
More than a third of 55 top finance bosses surveyed by Deloitte said the level of uncertainty from varying risks was “high or very high” in the fourth quarter of last year, which was slightly lower than measured in the third quarter of 2025.
Firms were also more optimistic about business prospects though the net reading remained in negative territory.
The biggest constraints on UK competitiveness included taxation, regulation and domestic economic uncertainty.
Research also pointed to much wider optimism about AI tools being able to boost performance and productivity levels at different organisations.
Towards the end of 2024, just 39 per cent of firms believed AI would deliver material improvements to performances.
In Deloitte’s latest survey, three in five finance chiefs (59 per cent) said they were more optimistic while 14 per cent said they were less optimistic.
Richard Houston, chief executive of Deloitte UK, said: “CFOs are significantly more positive about improving performance through deploying AI and remain upbeat about technology investment over the medium term.
“We know technology was a big driver of US GDP in 2025 and we see real potential in the year ahead for AI to boost UK business performance and fuel growth.”