Swiss voters have overwhelmingly rejected a proposed 50 per cent inheritance tax, proving that individuals in a democracy understand that confidence in a jurisdiction can evaporate quickly, says Tim Focas
Swiss voters have issued one of the clearest democratic verdicts on wealth and capital in recent memory. Last month, more than eight in ten rejected a proposal to impose a 50 per cent federal inheritance and gift tax on estates above 50m Swiss francs. The scale of the defeat was so emphatic that it can’t be dismissed as a quirk of Swiss politics. It is hard empirical evidence about where a mature, globally exposed economy believes long-term prosperity actually comes from. The UK government, seemingly caught between its instinct to find extra money for those on welfare and its temptation to squeeze middle and high earners ever harder, should sit up and take note.
Switzerland has always treated capital as something to be welcomed rather than corralled. Its system rests on competitive cantonal taxation and a cultural aversion to dramatic fiscal lurches. Critics of the country see this as indulgent. But the majority of voters clearly see it as a source of security in a volatile world. The referendum tested whether this confidence would hold when confronted with a bold redistributive plan pitched as a way to fund climate projects. The answer was an overwhelming and immediate no – certainly not at the expense of the nation’s competitive edge.
Sadly, the UK stands at a very different stage of its own debate. There are regular calls to expand inheritance taxes further and implement steeper levies on property as a quick route to repairing public finances. These arguments rest on a belief that the well off are largely immobile and that additional burdens can be imposed with minimal consequence. Switzerland’s vote cuts through that assumption. When a country that already possesses high quality public services and social cohesion rejects a flagship tax rise by such a margin, it reflects something much deeper. It shows voters understand that confidence in a jurisdiction can evaporate much faster than it can be rebuilt.
A wake up call for Westminster
The referendum also exposes another tension that is increasingly visible in Westminster. The Swiss proposal would have shifted significant power from cantons to the federal centre. Voters clearly concluded that centralisation is not automatically synonymous with fairness or efficiency. The UK’s fiscal debate rarely acknowledges this. Britain is a highly centralised state with a habit of tightening the grip of Whitehall whenever a new revenue stream is created. Although the Swiss result suggests that people value local accountability more than many policymakers assume.
The UK cannot talk about becoming a global hub for innovation, finance and enterprise while simultaneously floating policies that imply success will be penalised
The wider implication for Britain’s economic leadership is straightforward. Capital today is both fast moving and sensitive to signals. The UK cannot talk about becoming a global hub for innovation, finance and enterprise while simultaneously floating policies that imply success will be penalised. Switzerland has demonstrated that a clear social contract still works. Competitive taxation in exchange for predictable revenue and long-term investment. That clarity is a powerful magnet for entrepreneurs and high growth sectors.
There is a cultural dimension as well. Swiss voters appear to have rejected the framing of wealth creation as something inherently suspect. The UK risks sliding into a narrative that treats capital as a convenient target for punishment rather than a foundation for growth. The lesson from Switzerland is not that voters are indifferent to inequality. It is that they prefer stability and consistent rules over dramatic fiscal experiments dressed up as quick fixes.
This should prompt this government to take a hard look at the assumptions guiding the national conversation on taxation. The Swiss decision is a reminder that credibility is an asset in its own right. Once lost, it is difficult to regain. Now is the moment for the UK to choose whether it wants to nurture capital or merely tax the hell out of it.
Tim Focas is head of capital markets at Aspectus Group