At this stage, 317 days out from the first Test in Brisbane, it’s difficult to see any other result than a 3-0 series mauling of the Wallabies when the British and Irish Lions tour Australia.
A lot can change in the coming months and the southern hemisphere hosts could suddenly come good, but I have not seen enough from them this year – in their series win against Wales during the summer and their opening three Rugby Championship matches – to imagine them challenging the British and Irish Lions at the moment.
Australia need the Lions’ touring schedule – which will see Andy Farrell’s side take on local Super Rugby clubs and invitational teams – to be absolutely brutal.
They won’t say it out loud but they’ll want the Lions to suffer badly through strain and even injury to weaken the squad as much as possible before the three-Test series.
Out of their three touring destinations, their win percentage is by far the highest against Australia.
Against South Africa they have registered a win rate of just 37 per cent from their 49 matches since 1891 and in New Zealand that plummets to 17 per cent from 41 Tests.
Good fortunes
Against the Wallabies, however, the British and Irish Lions have won 17 of their 23 Tests at a win percentage of 74 per cent.
Granted, they’ve faced the Wallabies less than the Boks or the All Blacks, but their record means the Lions will always fancy themselves against Australia in a way they don’t against the other two.
That said, I do like what their head coach Joe Schmidt is doing at the moment to try and close the gap.
The former Ireland boss has a good coaching team with him in the form of Geoff Parling, Laurie Fisher and others, and he has been testing out combinations and captains in the few games he has been in charge.
They were well beaten by the Springboks in their opening games of the current Rugby Championship and struggled against Argentina. Despite their win over the Pumas, I still think they are the worst of the four sides in the competition.
But Schmidt is starting from a low base. Whether you love or loathe him, former coach Eddie Jones’s sudden departure did nothing for the stability of the Wallabies and it’s on the new Kiwi coach to turn Australia back into a machine that can challenge the Boks and All Blacks.
And Australia have bigger problems to contend with. They’re fighting for players who may otherwise choose rugby league or Aussie Rules and they’re battling for coverage on terrestrial television.
Wallabies will suffer?
In the modern game all of this helps towards pathways, revenue and full stadiums – Australia’s series victory against Wales showed there was work to do on the latter point.
Australia will desperately want to win the Lions series, to upset the odds if nothing else, but their bigger priority is the 2027 Rugby World Cup, which they are hosting.
This is a huge couple of years incoming for Australian rugby and the Wallabies, and it all begins with their hosting of the British and Irish Lions.
It would be one of the great Lions shocks if Australia won the three-Test series. The Lions should be far superior to their hosts under Schmidt’s former assistant Farrell, given the quality of depth across the four participating nations.
Sporting cliches aren’t new to this column either and I expect the Lions to feast on their Wallaby prey next summer.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie @OlliePhillips11
2013