Reform’s surge was a consequence of Tory failure, not its cause, writes William Atkinson
Being a Conservative voter under the age of 35 puts me in a rather small minority. Ipsos Mori’s post-election survey found that only eight per cent of my fellow Gen-Zers opted for the Tories. That put us in fifth – behind Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Reform UK.
One of those might surprise you. Since Labour won with every age group under 65, their lead is par for the course. Nor is the Greens’ popularity amongst a climate-conscious generation, or that of the Lib Dems for those still smarting from the loss of freedom of movement, all too shocking.
But Reform? Nigel Farage may have almost a million Tiktok groupies. But were enough under-35s sufficiently wooed by him mouthing along to Eminem to put their tick in his box? Are young right-wingers following in their French confrères’ footsteps, where Marine Le Pen’s popularity has soared with les jeunes? And are the Tories going the way of the dodo?
Not quite. For all the fuss made about Farage getting down wid da kids, only 9.5 per cent of 18 to 30-year-olds supported his party. That was only 1.5 per cent more than the Tories – and almost half that of the Greens. It was also only 0.5 per cent more than Ukip, his previous party-but-one, managed in 2015, when Tiktok was still a glint in some CCP agent’s eye.
The real story with younger voters was largely the same as with every other demographic: the other parties treading water as the Conservatives collapsed. Amongst under-35s, Tory support more than halved from the last election. But we were far from their most vital lost voters.
In Breaking Blue, their post-election postmortem, the think tank Onward identified what they call the ‘super demographics’ responsible for the unprecedented Conservative defeat. They are a pick ‘n’ mix assortment of over-55s, suburban homeowners, Leave voters and those from the upper working-class. Distributed equally across the country, they deserted the Tories wholesale.
Many followed Farage’s siren song to Reform. But any Conservative who thinks this means we must throw in our lot with their five new MPs should hold their horses – not least because we have 24 times as many Commons seats as they do. Reform’s surge was a consequence of Tory failure, not its cause. They voted against us, not for Farage.
Conservative support collapsed first because of the ethical minefield of Partygate, and then from the heart attack to our reputation provided by Liz Truss’s brief reign. Underlying that were deep frustrations on three major issues: NHS waiting lists, living standards and immigration. Boris Johnson’s myriad promises from 2019 went unfulfilled.
And so fed-up ex-Tories across the country voted to turf us out. Those especially fed up with immigration opted for Reform. Yet some in urban areas went for Labour, and many in former rural safe seats went for the Lib Dems. Reuniting that coalition will be an uphill struggle.
Many voters may need a while to even give us the time of day. But Onward’s research shows defectors to Reform and the Lib Dems have quite similar views. A majority want immigration significantly reduced and dislike Keir Starmer. That is something for us to work with.
Already, Labour are running into serious difficulties. Farage is proving a damp squib as an MP, having only spoken twice in the Common chamber since being elected. Conservatives should not rule out his campaigning talents. But just how bored will he be by the next election?
Conservative leadership contenders like Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are already crafting pitches designed to marry a credible approach to immigration to a presentational style without Farage’s habit of alienating many more voters than he attracts. With politics volatile and voting intentions increasingly malleable, a rapid Tory recovery is far from impossible.