Despite the best efforts of social media-enabled political analysts yesterday, it is far too early to judge whether what happened on Saturday evening in Pennsylvania will impact the eventual result of the Presidential election in the US.
There are too many unknowables; too many unknowns between here and November.
Political violence is a part of American history.
Four Presidents have been killed in office; there have been attempts on the lives of many more, with George Ford dodging not one but two in September 1975 alone.
With that heritage, and with the temperature of American politics already at boiling point, it is beholden on all political leaders here and there to cool their jets. Predictably, some have failed to do so.
The newly elected MP for Clacton, Nigel Farage, was amongst the first. Whilst his point that liberal rhetoric on Donald Trump may sometimes overstep the mark has some validity, it does rather stick in the throat when the subject of this weekend’s dreadful attack has not exactly been consistently careful with his language (see: “If I don’t get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath”; see also, January 6).
Trump’s potential vice president JD Vance, similarly, felt this was the moment to take aim at liberals for their rhetoric. It’s not really a surprise that within hours of the attempt on Trump’s life, there was a billboard in the town reading “Democrats attempted assassination” next to the former and possibly future president’s face.
Politics is a contact sport but it shouldn’t be a violent one. Our politics here feels more serene; the transfer of power at the start of this month is a triumph of democracy and, by the way, its own quiet rebuke to Trump’s unwillingness to accept his defeat in 2020.
But we have still lost two MPs in the last 8 years to murder. There is no place for complacency.
Coarseness in public discourse is unwise. It’s also unhelpful to spend the last few days arguing about whether Trump played a part in creating the environment that led to this weekend, though we will. Let’s hope some lessons are learnt.