Macron’s call for certainty has resulted in a confusing and concerning hung parliament in France, writes Lucy Kenningham
Britain’s election result wasn’t hard to understand. France’s is the opposite – but let me explain.
Cast your mind back to 9 June. “This is an essential time for clarification,” President Emmanuel Macron said, sombrely, this being the eve of the far-right victory in the European elections. “I have heard your message, your concerns and I will not leave them unanswered … France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony.” And, with a snap of his fingers in the manner of a malevolent magician, he dramatically dissolved parliament and called fresh elections for three weeks’ time.
Oh how naive his words seem now that the subsequent snap legislative elections in France have thrown up perhaps more problems that Macron intended for them to answer.
‘Biggest electoral surprise’
Sunday’s results constitute the biggest electoral surprise in our entire history, said Alain Duhamel, an expert in French politics, without any sense of hyperbole. He is not wrong: after a first round of voting in which the far right National Rally clearly came out on top, there was neither indication nor precedent for that to change in Sunday’s second and final vote. In a shock volte face, the left wing alliance came out on top (182 seats), with President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble party a close second (168 seats) and the RN third (143 seats). This evening, France said no to appointing the RN to power, said Olivier Faure of the Socialist Party.
Ensemble and the leftists achieved this through collaboratively withdrawing candidates in 200 constituencies, turning these contests into referenda on the RN. A high voter turnout helped too; France has an issue with disengagement, particularly amongst young people. Turnout was the highest for 50 years and, unusually, higher than it had been in the first round.
Macron’s party will shudder at governing with Communists; and the alliance has pledged to return the pension age to 60 (a protracted and bloody battle he waged, ultimately winning but nearly losing his premiership over)
What will happen now?
No party holds a majority so what will happen now? It depends on what deals are struck over the next days and weeks. France has no experience of making the kind of deals that lead to a coalition government, having never experienced one. The left want Macron to lend his party’s support to them. But their alliance spans the Greens, Communists, Socialists and the relatively radical Unsubmissive France party. Macron’s party will shudder at governing with Communists; and the alliance has pledged to return the pension age to 60, cap energy bills and increase the minimum wage by 14 per cent, which are incompatible with Ensemble’s politics. Indeed, Macron spent years waging a bloody battle over raising the pension age, nearly sacrificing his position as premier in its pursuit. Ensemble would prefer splitting up the leftists and creating a new pact with its least radical components. But whether that can happen is uncertain.
Gabriel Attal, the current prime minister, has said he will step down. But the left hasn’t agreed on a candidate and, with the Olympics starting at the end of the month, Attal will stay “as long as duty requires”. Some predict that could be all summer. And with France being the second largest economy in the European Union and a major voice in Nato supporting Ukraine, gridlock in parliament has consequences beyond its borders.
‘We won! We will govern!’
Protests erupted across Paris both against the leftist alliance and in celebration at its victory. The leader of the Greens rejoiced: we won and we will govern! La place de la republique exploded in graffiti, fireworks, and cheers. By contrast, Macron called for “caution”.
Bardella, who took some responsibility for the result, maintained that in spite of it all, this has been a major breakthrough for his party. An indefatigable Marine Le Pen said that whilst the RN hadn’t won this time, their seats were continuing to grow and added, rather ominously, that it was only a matter of time.
So, the far right have been defeated for now, but for how long? Parliament is likely to be chaotic whatever deals take place, and jammed-up policymaking will not be the optimal force to stimulate much-needed growth, and help those who are left behind. It is these people, largely residing in rural areas, who are most likely to be tempted by the far right.
The RN’s vote share rose from 89 in 2022 to 143 and many voters will deeply resent Macron’s “alliance of dishonour” formed to suppress far-right voices.