Labour are set for a baptism of misery, with a host of tough decisions on everything from taxes to the NHS. Just as Boris broke the Brexit deadlock, Starmer will need all his strength to push through the changes this country needs, says Zoe Grunewald
Conservative MPs have moved from maintaining that their party can still win the general election to issuing grave warnings about a Tory wipeout.
Defence secretary Grant Shapps cautioned that Labour could get a “supermajority”; a sweeping victory that would give Labour leader Keir Starmer unchecked power, pushing dangerous legislation through the Commons, authorised by a mass of subservient MPs.
This argument would have been far more powerful had it come from a government with a track record of good governance. Consider Rishi Sunak’s legacy. You’d be forgiven for drawing a blank. In his first few weeks as prime minister he was forced to water down vital planning reforms after his compulsory house building targets were rebuffed by unruly MPs. His flagship Rwanda legislation saw months of delays while his government was forced to negotiate with rebels. Now it looks unlikely we will ever see the plan put into action.
Large majorities are useful. Though you might disagree with the principle of Boris Johnson’s hard Brexit (I certainly do), his substantial 80-seat majority in 2019 allowed him to break through months of parliamentary gridlock. The constitutional crisis that leaving the EU provoked required a leader with a large mandate and compliant MPs to resolve.
Labour’s honeymoon will be a baptism of misery. Councils across the country face bankruptcy, universities and hospitals are failing, utilities companies are on the brink of collapse and overcrowded prisons are bursting at the seams. Like the Brexit deadlock, these problems require a powerful force to resolve them. This is where Sunak failed – he could not command the confidence of his MPs who were more preoccupied with their political survival. So the country stagnated and services worsened. The new government will have to act fast to stem the bleeding.
The only way through is a party prepared to make a series of difficult decisions – possibly in the form of tax rises and reforms. This would be no good for a leader who is beholden to MPs or hampered by a hung parliament – it requires a party united by political will and emboldened by a large mandate. Starmer has ensured that he has loyalty. His interference in candidate selection – though making him unpopular with the left – has secured him the confidence of his MPs and minimised the threat of large, insurmountable rebellions.
That is not to say large majorities are risk-free. As Britain faces its most precarious set of circumstances in generations, it is essential that legislation gets adequate scrutiny. With the main opposition likely to be reduced to a small, divided group of MPs, their capacity for line-by-line scrutiny of complex bills will be minimal.
But there are reasons to be optimistic. Scrutiny is not solely a function of opposition MPs. Select committees, parliamentary questions, the media and civil servants all have a vital role to play in holding the government to account and keeping them on course. As Hannah White, Director for the Institute for Government pointed out, the important thing is that Labour is open to engaging with parliament.
Importantly, Labour dedicated an entire chapter of its manifesto to winning back the trust of the electorate and strengthening democracy. This includes the introduction of a dedicated Ethics and Integrity Commission to “ensure probity in government”, a ban on MPs taking up consultancy jobs to focus on serving their constituents and devolving power to communities. These are not the promises of a government intent on operating beneath the shadowy cloak of power.
The Tories, engulfed by yet another political scandal, are in no place to question Labour’s motives. The governing party has been more preoccupied with themselves than governance – allowing the country to fall into a state of disrepair. Fixing Britain requires not only a change of guard, but political will, unity and a leader who is backed by their party and prepared to make tough decisions. In this sense, a supermajority is nothing to fear. In many ways, it may be our only hope.
Zoe Grunewald is Westminster Editor of the Lead UK and a freelance political journalist and broadcaster