Stoking generational culture wars may win a handful of votes in the short-term, but it could trigger the end of the Conservative party as we know it, says Zoe Grunewald
No need to stop the press: the Tories are going to lose. That’s a given. The party is resigned to defeat and even Rishi Sunak’s AI-generated optimism cannot drown out the death-rattle of defections and resignations.
In the last days of Rome, the party has begun damage-limitation. Fighting Labour – with its almost immovable poll lead – is pointless. Instead, they are shoring up support on their right flank. Having identified target seats – true Blue areas with older, socially conservative voters – their focus has turned to preventing the right-wing challenger party Reform UK from stealing votes. Culture wars, immigration and pub-chat policy only, please.
The strategy is simple: no long-term solutions, just rash promises that appeal to a voter group whose main worries are perceived rips in the social fabric and the security of their pensions. As such, the party’s first full week of campaigning consisted of policies that stoke the generational culture war. A flimsy, ill-thought out National Service programme which plucks youngsters from their phones and into the military, a triple-lock “plus” pensions enhancement and a clamp-down on “Mickey Mouse” degrees (because who said university should be any fun?). The message behind the policy blitz is clear: we are on the side of pensioners – even if it’s at the expense of young people.
This approach is not just short-sighted, it’s catastrophic. For a while now the Tories have struggled to appeal to young voters. In 2010, 30 per cent of 18-24 year olds backed the party. In 2019, these voters abandoned them – with less than one fifth of under 25s lending their support.
The age at which people start voting Tory is increasing, too. Those who had voted Tory in 2010 – who were in their early 30s by 2019 – have deserted them, with 51 per cent backing Labour. Under David Cameron, the Tories received the highest vote share across all age groups over 24. Fast forward to today, YouGov reckons support for the governing party sits at a mere eight per cent for all those under the age of 50. Let’s be clear: this haemorrhage suggests an extinction level result.
The old adage says that as voters buy homes, pay taxes and raise families, they tend to vote Conservative. It makes sense: they have more to conserve. Failures of the government to build more houses and cool the rental market have left young people without property, savings or security.
But it’s not just neglect. The government has perpetuated a culture of hostility towards the young. Brexit ripped away opportunities to study and travel in the European Union, sending a clear message of indifference to the under 30s who voted – overwhelmingly – to stay in the EU. The Tories have used culture wars to distract from their failures on the economy, building and the health service – and increasingly made young people, whom they describe as “snowflakes”, the butt of their anger. Even MPs can’t hide their scorn. Defending the national service policy announcement, former defence secretary and darling of the Tory party Ben Wallace tweeted: “Heaven forbid young people are made to do something”.
Short-term election prospects have left the Tory party preoccupied with stemming the bleeding. But the wound will turn septic after the country casts its vote. The failure of the Tories to build more houses and embrace progressive values has led to an exodus of younger votes. Inventing punitive policies that appeal to a specific group of voters that is declining in numbers and dwindling in influence could be the nail in the coffin.
Young people are not stupid – they can see they are being used as a political football. While the approach may consolidate a handful of votes from hostile baby-boomers in the short term, the Tories will find no comfort ploughing ahead ignoring the reality laid about before them. Aside from the dire poll ratings, the ageing population presents a ticking time bomb for pensions, health and social care. The truth is that the old desperately need the young. The Tories would be wise to acknowledge this.
These decisions could sign the party’s death warrant. Once trust is broken, it takes years to rebuild. Continuing their campaign of contempt could see them resigned to opposition for generations. It would serve them right.
Zoe Grunewald is Westminster Editor of the Lead UK and a freelance political journalist and broadcaster