The Tories risk being reduced to just four seats in the capital – and losing inner London entirely – according to a major poll by YouGov.
Labour is set to take 65 of the capital’s 75 seats and, nationally, could be on course for the biggest election victory in the party’s history, the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) poll suggested.
This result would surpass Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, and see Labour win up to 422 seats, with the Conservatives on just 140, the YouGov and Sky News analysis on Monday found.
If accurate, it would give Sir Keir Starmer a majority of 194 – the largest margin for any party since 1924 – and spell disaster for Rishi Sunak.
But in the capital, the model had the Tories taking only four seats, all in east London: Romford, Hornchurch and Upminster, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Orpington.
These would all be Conservative holds, but in 2019, when Boris Johnson won his 80-seat majority, the party secured 21 seats, gaining two.
But the news comes amid selection rows for Labour in the capital, with former leader Jeremy Corbyn set to stand as an independent in Islington North and a bruising saga over his close ally Diane Abbott’s candidacy in Hackney North and Stoke Newington.
It comes after Sadiq Khan secured a historic third term as London mayor, beating Conservative rival Susan Hall in the mayoral election in May, including across inner London.
However, Old Bexley and Sidcup, and Romford, are close contests with the Conservative and Labour parties within a couple of points of each other, YouGov said.
Meanwhile, Labour is set to increase its hold in the capital with 65 MPs, including picking up Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, with a 16-point lead, as well as Ian Duncan Smith’s constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green.
Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are on course for six London MPs, all in the southwest of the capital.
They are projected to win Carshalton and Wallington, Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Sutton and Cheam, Twickenham, Wimbledon, according to the poll.
But Wimbledon is expected to be a relatively close three-way race with Davey’s party on 35 per cent versus the Conservatives and Labour both on 28 per cent.