The general election is upon us, set in stone for July 4, the date announced by Rishi Sunak on the steps of Downing Street.
The prevailing narrative is that Rishi Sunak faces an uphill task turning around a 20-point poll lead.
Yet within that there are a multitude of questions to be answered.
What happens to Reform – and will Nigel stand as an MP?
Richard Tice-led, Nigel Farage-inspired Reform have polled regularly around 10 per cent in a threat to the Tories’ core vote. But when the rubber hits the road, will those Faragistas play it safe with a vote for the Conservatives? The other big x-factor is whether Farage, who has recently talked up a job offer in the US, is willing to put his name on the ballot. He’s not won yet, and not for lack of trying.
Either way, a Reform taking a gigantic bite out of Tory votes in marginal constituencies – which this time is basically all of them – could be fatal for the government.
Do say: “Really, he’s probably more powerful as an influencer than an MP – the ultimate outsider”
Don’t say: “I thought he was still in UKIP?”
Can Labour break through in Scotland?
The swing that Keir Starmer would like is a substantial one, but it will be made easier if a few SNP seats in Scotland switch red. The party’s well-publicised issues – from the Sturgeon clan’s brush with the law to the defenestration of Humza Yousaf – could provide Labour an opening. It has been nine years since the wipeout in the 2015 election; is that enough time for wounds to heal?
Do say: “It’s really a question about whether the SNP are seen as an independence movement, or a governing party”
Don’t say: “I imagine Gordon Brown will help”
Can Rishi hold the red wall?
Boris Johnson drove a bulldozer – literally – through seats across the north of England in 2019. Sunak is by no means as popular, but has Keir Starmer cut through sufficiently with voters the Tories are hoping see him as just an Islington liberal?
Do say: “He needs to hit those retail politics issues on the doorstep”
Don’t say: “Wait, haven’t most of the ones that won up there last time resigned?”
What will Gaza do to Labour’s vote?
There was evidence in the local elections that some parts of the traditional Labour vote were wavering due to the party’s perceived lack of backbone on criticising Israel. It looks unlikely that the Gaza conflict will come to an end before July: how will Starmer play it? David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary who has seemingly left behind his gaffe-prone past, will have a key role in balancing the competing objectives of soothing concerns over anti-semitism whilst showing enough leg to those pro-Palestinian protestors that Labour needs.
Do say: “It’s a tough balancing act”
Don’t say: Actually, sometimes it’s safer not to say anything.
Has it all come too soon?
Not every seat has a candidate ready to go: selection procedures in both Labour and the Conservative parties were still being muddled through. Both major parties will have to rush through their selection procedures, and that means some… interesting candidates are likely to emerge. Strange things happen when elections are called by surprise…
Do say: “Parties have really invested in their vetting in recent years, and that will be tested this time!”
Don’t say: “Wait, they vet candidates? Really?”
What about the Euros?
Some clever folk think the July 4 date will coincide with the high of an England run in this summer’s European championships. Whilst there is plenty of logic to people being in a better mood thanks to the football team’s performance, it’s not quite so cut and dry. Though some blame Harold Wilson’s 1970 defeat on England’s loss to West Germany a few days before, there was much more going on – and after all, Winston Churchill lost an election after winning World War II…
Do say: “The nation might be riding high but if anything, all those celebratory pints will make people feel the pinch even more”
Don’t say: “And Scotland might get to the quarter finals too!”
Whither the Lib Dems?
The Lib Dems are mounting a localised attack on the south east and south west – areas they think the Tories are ripe for a kicking. Mortgage rates and fiscal drag have hit hard across the country’s more prosperous regions. Will pre-election hopes turn into seats for Ed Davey’s party?
Do say: “They’ve always had a very strong ground game”
Don’t say: “Wait, Ed Davey didn’t resign over the Post Office?”