Speculation has been mounting in Westminster throughout the day that Rishi Sunak could be preparing to call a general election – as soon as this afternoon.
While this would broadly fit the expected timetable, as a general election legally must take place no later than January 2025, nonetheless the rumour mill appeared to go into overdrive at speed.
Here’s a few reasons why the Prime Minister could opt to call an election today.
1. Good (ish) news on inflation
Rumours appeared to begin last night after it emerged cabinet would take place today, rather than on Tuesday as is standard.
On this occasion, that was due to Sunak being on a visit to Vienna, Austria, to promote his Rwanda policy.
However, given today also coincides with the latest fall in inflation – to 2.3 per cent – having reached just over 11 per cent at its highest in October 2022, could he be tempted to use the good news for the government’s message that ‘the plan is working’ to launch a general election campaign?
The drop has been broadly welcomed as a positive amongst politicos, and some MPs are of the mindset that this may well be as good as it gets.
In truth, the picture’s a bit more complicated: as our economics reporter Chris Dorrell makes clear, the inflation numbers aren’t nearly as good as economists had expected them to be.
2. No money to cut taxes
While the inflation rate may be good news, the government has appeared reliant on the message that the economy is turning a corner in a bid to woo voters at the ballot box.
This was somewhat scuppered however by a larger than expected borrowing overshoot in April, which may also have tipped the balance for the government.
According to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the difference between government income and spending last month was £20.5bn – £1.2bn more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and ahead of economists’ expectations too.
Hunt has repeatedly suggested he would seek to cut taxes again in a pre-general election fiscal event, but this now looks increasingly difficult.
The IMF yesterday said further tax cuts would also complicate the public finances.
Following the figures, Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, simply noted “there isn’t room for tax cuts”. Gulp…
3. Avoid a summer of small boats
Key to Sunak’s five pledges was his promise to stop the small boat arrivals across the Channel.
It’s important positioning for a leader who is down in the polls and has faced criticism from the right of his party, and calls to be tougher on immigration.
Announcing a general election now could see early July as a likely date. While this is, of course, in the summer, it could see the government avoid the best part of two months of potential good weather, calm seas – and an uptick in attempted crossings.
Sunak also said earlier this month that the first flights deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda could take off in June – which could also offer a helping hand in an election campaign.
4. Polls aren’t budging
Perhaps the least – or most – concrete reason for or against calling a summer election is that the polls aren’t moving.
Labour have been consistently ahead in the polls since 2022, and currently boast a 21-point lead according to Politico’s ‘poll of polls’.
For those urging Sunak to go sooner, the argument is that it may be better to get the worst over with and focus on rebuilding the party in opposition.
Those calling on him to go long, and hold out until the autumn, would be correct to point out that you never know when something may come along and turn things around.
5. Voter base
The Conservative’s main voter base tends to be older, and more rural than Labour.
Worries the party could lack activists on the doorstep in dark, cold, rainy winter months – especially after a dire set of local election results lost hundreds of councillors – are valid.
A November election may also coincide with the beginnings of an NHS winter crisis. Many remember the headlines of a small child forced to sleep on a hospital floor as Boris Johnson went to the country in 2019.
Some even suggest going as early as June 27 – unlikely, given Parliament would have to be dissolved tomorrow to leave enough time for the official campaign – could also affect Labour’s turnout figures and activist ability, as it happens to coincide with Glastonbury.
And if we’re going down the cultural mood route, July 5-6 happens to be around the time of the Euros quarter finals…