The dynamics of mayoral races are very different to Westminster election mud-slinging, and mayors Andy Street, Ben Houchen and Sadiq Khan could all buck the national trend, writes Adam Hawksbee
Ed Koch, the New York Mayor who steered his city away from ruin in the 1980s, had a simple way of connecting with voters. “How am I doing?” he asked passers-by on street corners, at subway stations, outside bars and bodegas. He took what he heard straight to City Hall, acting on what mattered most to the public, and ultimately served three full terms.
Mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen, both looking to their third electoral test, could be about to defy the electoral odds and follow in Koch’s footsteps.
Across the world, the mayoral role favours a more direct form of politics. Leaders with an individual mandate can focus on local issues, without being distracted by national political gossip or legislative parlour games.
England’s experiment with mayors is relatively new, but it has already transformed our politics. Roughly one in five people can name their council leader, around half can name their MP. But polling by the Centre for Cities finds that mayoral recognition is much higher – 88 per cent of Londoners can name Sadiq Khan, 83 per cent of people in Greater Manchester know Andy Burnham, roughly 70 per cent can name Ben Houchen in the Tees Valley and Andy Street in the West Midlands.
The electoral challenge for Street and Houchen is daunting, but straightforward: could their individual reputations and track records trump the Conservative party’s current unpopularity? It’s never a good idea to make predictions in politics, and an even worse one to put them in print, but – I think there’s a strong likelihood both candidates will win.
To declare an interest, I worked as an advisor to Andy Street. That could give me a rose-tinted view of his electoral prospects, but it also helps me understand why his brand is so distinct from the Conservative Party’s. He has always emphasised his business credentials, and to many is the “John Lewis” candidate instead of the man in the blue rosette. He hasn’t been afraid to battle with the government, most recently over HS2 and the “begging bowl” culture of levelling up funds.
But most of all, Andy Street’s brand is based on delivery. His electoral pitch is centred on detailed transport plans, housing delivery statistics and job creation numbers. Houchen is pointing to his record on Teesside Airport and the Teesworks industrial site, and his pledge to build a new hospital.
Electoral opponents will, rightly, challenge these records. The recent Whitehall review into Teesworks may have made a particular dent in Houchen’s credibility. But the dynamics of mayoral races look very different to the Westminster election mud-slinging already underway. The party brand matters far less than personal delivery. Place matters more than politics.
Here’s another prediction: in London, Sadiq Khan will underperform Labour’s national result. An Ed Koch-style mayoral chat with the public outside a Tube station would probably descend into an almighty slanging match on crime, ULEZ, strikes, nightlife and more. Elections focused on individual mandates and delivery records can be a double-edged sword.
This is the truth that a Westminster-focused media misses about mayoral races: they are not a proxy vote on national politics. The question being asked isn’t really about the Tories or Labour. The mayoral question is simpler: “How am I doing?”