With the May 2 local elections now rapidly approaching, both parties are already beginning expectation management when it comes to the results.
And while not all UK councils will hold elections next month, a sizable enough chunk of local authorities will be going to the polls for analysis to be meaningful.
Ultimately, it will be the scale of the Conservative losses and Labour gains which is in question – as well as any consequences for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s leadership.
These are likely to come in a couple of crucial areas.
Mayoral elections could be key
One area party strategists and politicos will be keeping a close eye on is the metro mayoral races up and down England.
We’re unlikely to see much upset for Sadiq Khan, who is standing for Labour in London and campaigning for a record third term running City Hall. Savanta research director Chris Hopkins told City A.M. last month that he’d be “astounded if Khan doesn’t win”.
However, it’s a different story elsewhere for Conservative Mayors. The fates of West Midlands Mayor Andy Street and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley seen as electoral weathervanes for the Tories’ prospects.
Spectator political editor Katy Ball wrote in the Times today that a former cabinet minister told her: “Andy losing the Midlands is very difficult. Ben losing would be nuclear.”
Losing those centres of power would be indicative of difficult times to come.
Local council seats to watch
According to Labour’s National Executive Council (NEC) member Luke Akehurst, writing for LabourList, target councils for Labour include: Thurrock in Essex, which recently went bust; and Tamworth, West Midlands, where it secured Chris Pincher’s old seat in a by-election.
Dudley, also in the West Midlands, played host to Labour’s local election campaign launch, with Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner speaking at the Black Country & Marches Institute of Technology, where Boris Johnson promised to bring levelling up in a speech in 2020.
Areas where Labour could struggle, Akehurst said, include winning back Oxford following resignations over Gaza, and battles in Oldham, Rotherham, Bristol and Sheffield.
The Conservatives will also be concerned about losses to the Lib Dems, particularly in the South East and South West, as well as support trickling away to Reform UK – who now have their first MP in Tory defector Lee Anderson.
Results could spell doom for Sunak
The overall outcome from May 2 is likely – as polls have predicted – to see the Tories losing a chunk of seats, and Labour making gains.
Barring any major upsets, the key question will be what impact this has on Sunak’s premiership.
If the Conservatives do better than expected, this is likely to buy him some time, including with disgruntled MPs. It may be interpreted as a ‘bounce’ from the Spring Budget.
However, if the Tories do worse than feared – including the “nuclear” outcome of Houchen and Street losing – chatter around a confidence vote or leadership challenge could resume.
An undercurrent of dissatisfaction rumbles on within the party. A poor set of locals, even at this low ebb, could bring it to a head.