“The players are shifting” in the jostle between global airport’s for market share, according to Gatwick’s former boss and the current head of Dubai Airport.
Paul Griffith’s words, primarily directed at his old rival London Heathrow, bring into focus just how defining a period this could be for the UK’s biggest airport.
Profits have finally recovered to pre-pandemic levels, new Danish CEO Thomas Woldbye has taken over from the controversial John Holland-Kaye and passenger number forecasts have been hiked to over 80m in 2024.
But if Griffith’s words are to be trusted, all of that will mean previous little if the Hounslow hub can’t finally confirm its long-delayed expansion plans.
Speaking to the Telegraph, Dubai Airport’s chief said Heathrow had already “lost its status” as a key hub for transfer flights due to a lack of capacity, a problem which could be solved by a third runway.
Paul Griffiths, CEO, Dubai Airports International (WIkipedia/Source The Future of Airport Infrastructure & the Passenger Experience Author World Travel & Tourism Council/ CC BY 2.0 DEED)
“The true competition between airlines and airports is in the transfer market,” he explained, adding “I think the problem in the West is that the development of airports is an incredibly political thing. Heathrow’s third runway has been in play for 50 years and we’re no further forward.”
Woldbye has so far remained coy over a full commitment to the embattled proposals, which isn’t surprising given the torrid statea of Britain’s infrastructure planning system and a looming general election.
HS2’s issues are well known, but other projects like the Lower Thames Crossing, whose planning application is the longest in UK history, or Hinkley Point C, are also in the spotlight over delay and cost.
Heathrow’s third runway would face similar cost inflation issues pummelling HS2 and has been opposed all the way by environmental campaign groups.
It’s not simple either. To make room for the third strip, Heathrow wants to divert one of the busiest stretches of the M25 into a tunnel, an idea Ryanair’s chief executive Michael O’Leary described as “f****ng off the wall” and “pie in the sky stuff” in an interview with City A.M.
The airport is undeniably in a precarious position. Face losing its position as one of the top hub’s globally, or pursue an incredibly complex project at a time when the UK’s infrastructure system has reached its lowest ebb.
Reports have circulated in recent months it is exploring options for a watered down expansion that would prioritise smaller improvements before cosntruction of a third runway is considered.
Heathrow airport is exploring options for a new expansion plan that would prioritise smaller improvements before construction of a controversial third runway is considered.
“It’s quite a sorry sight that the thing that could really put a shot in the arm of the British economy is being stifled because there is not enough capacity,” Griffiths said.
His comments also come amid the roll-out of new Home Office red tape, which means some passengers on connecting flights to Britain will be forced to pay £10 and wait days for an online permit. Heathrow, which operates far more transfer flights than any other UK hub, has said the so-called Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) will push passengers to its overseas competitors.
“The players are shifting,” Griffiths warned. “Our biggest player is not Heathrow or Gatwick. It is what’s happening in Qatar or Istanbul. They are determined to capture market share from us.”
Whatever the case, the signs are ominous. Dubai Airport is expecting to surpass 90m passengers this year, firmly ahead of Heathrow’s bumped-up forecasts.
Istanbul meanwhile is splashing out on more back-up runways, while eyeing up a target of 200m passengers annually by 2027.